Lewis County

Lewis County sits at a median home price of $202,536 with 5.79% year-over-year appreciation, an affordability index of 87, and a cash-flow score of zero. That combination tells you immediately what this market is and what it isn't. The appreciation score of 88 and a national percentile rank of 95th (40th out of 1,000 counties nationally, and first in New York State out of 62 counties) reflect a market that has been moving price-wise at a pace that outstrips many better-known metros. But with a cap rate and cash-on-cash return both reported at zero, and monthly mortgage, expense, and cash-flow figures equally blank, this is not a market where a buyer leveraged at 6.85% interest is going to find yield without significant work. The numbers as they stand describe a price-appreciation play, not an income play.

That framing should immediately sort the investor types. If you are an appreciation buyer, Lewis checks real boxes: $202,536 median price, 5.79% trailing appreciation, 95th national percentile overall, and the top rank in a state not exactly known for cheap real estate. A cash buyer or a buyer who can bring a large down payment well beyond the modeled $40,507 might manufacture acceptable returns by suppressing debt service, but at a 6.85% rate on a standard leveraged acquisition the math does not close for cash flow based on the data provided. A value-add operator who can force equity through renovation in a rising-price environment could find the appreciation tailwind useful, but without rent data for Lewis itself, any income projection is speculative. The honest read: this market suits a buyer who believes price appreciation in rural upstate New York will continue, is comfortable with a stability score of 50, and either has cheap capital or is buying outright.

The stability score of 50 is worth sitting with. In a county of 26,690 people, the demand base is thin. Small populations concentrate risk: a single employer contraction, a demographic shift, or an infrastructure problem can move vacancy and prices in ways that larger markets absorb easily. No economic anchor data is provided for Lewis County, so no employer-specific analysis can be made here, but investors should independently verify what drives local employment and household formation before committing. A 50 stability score in a small-population county is a yellow flag that deserves its own due-diligence line item.

The tax and insurance picture deserves specific underwriting attention. At a New York state-average effective property tax rate of 1.72%, Lewis County carries a meaningful carry cost: $3,484 annually in estimated taxes and $486 in estimated insurance, landing at $331 per month combined for tax and insurance alone on a $202,536 purchase. That figure is high enough to be its own line on your underwrite. Note that 1.72% is a state-average estimate using Tax Foundation 2024 data, and the actual county or township rate in Lewis may differ, potentially materially in either direction. New York is not a low-tax state, and investors accustomed to markets in the South or Midwest where effective rates run 0.5% to 0.9% should recalibrate expectations. At $331 per month before debt service, management, maintenance, and vacancy, the cash-flow math tightens fast.

The neighbor comparison sharpens the picture. Broome County comes in at a $187,105 median with a rent-to-price ratio of 9.11% and an overall score of 76, matching Lewis's overall score while delivering meaningfully better yield metrics and a lower entry price. Chemung County offers a $151,982 median and a 9.17% rent-to-price ratio at an overall score of 73. Cattaraugus County is at $158,795 and 8.23%. All three give an income-oriented buyer better raw yield at lower entry. Oneida County at $225,470 and a 7.84% rent-to-price ratio costs more and yields less than Broome or Chemung. Lewis's own rent-to-price ratio is not reported, which itself is a signal worth noting. The case for choosing Lewis over Broome or Chemung is not cash flow; it is the specific 5.79% appreciation rate, the 95th percentile national ranking, and whatever local factors an investor can identify that explain why this small-population county is outperforming on price. An investor who has conviction on those factors and does not need yield to service debt will find Lewis defensible. An investor who needs monthly income to cover a mortgage at 6.85% should be looking at Broome or Chemung first.