Suffolk County

Suffolk County sits at a 3.58% cap rate on a $729,701 median purchase price, with gross rent of $3,351 per month producing a rent-to-price ratio of 0.0551, or about 55 cents per hundred dollars of value. At 6.85% financing with 20% down, the model spits out negative $1,646 per month in cash flow and a cash-on-cash return of -11.77%. Those numbers place Suffolk firmly in appreciation territory, not cash-flow territory. The appreciation score of 83 confirms the thesis: 4.01% year-over-year price growth, a population of 1.52 million, and an affordability index of 9 out of 100 all describe a supply-constrained, high-cost market where rents trail asset prices by a meaningful margin. The overall score of 51 and the national percentile rank of 27 suggest this is a middling market by combined metrics, dragged down by the cash-flow deficit and the affordability floor.

The investor this market suits is not a yield buyer. A cash-flow buyer running a conventional mortgage here will be underwater by design, not by accident. The appreciation buyer, however, has a cleaner case: Long Island's housing supply is structurally limited, and a 4% annual price gain on a $730,000 asset is $29,000 per year in equity growth even before amortization, which partially offsets the operating deficit if the investor has the balance sheet to carry it. A value-add operator who can push rents above the $3,352 median, reduce vacancy through forced improvements, or convert a single-family to a legal two-family in the right zoning might bend the cash-flow curve, but even then the cap rate at current prices makes it a thin game. The affordability index of 9 is a double-edged signal: it means almost no one can afford to buy, which sustains rental demand, but it also means competing investors face the same entry cost and leverage math you do.

No economic anchors or employer data were provided for this county, so the employment and demand picture cannot be characterized with specifics here. What the data does show is a market of 1.52 million people where median rents clear $3,350, which implies a tenant pool with reasonably high household incomes, a function of Suffolk's position within the broader New York metropolitan labor market.

The tax and insurance load is a material underwriting consideration. At a state-average effective property tax rate of 1.72%, annual taxes on a $730,000 property run approximately $12,551, and insurance adds another $1,751, for a combined monthly carry of $1,192. That figure alone consumes 36% of gross rent before a single dollar goes to mortgage principal, interest, or maintenance. New York's effective rate of 1.72% is high enough to deserve its own line on your underwrite, and the caveat matters here: this is a state-average estimate based on Tax Foundation 2024 data, and actual county and township rates in Suffolk can differ, sometimes meaningfully. Investors should pull the specific parcel tax bill or assessor record before underwriting to close.

The primary risk in Suffolk is concentration in a single market dynamic: appreciation-driven returns in a high-cost, high-tax jurisdiction. If price growth stalls or reverses, the negative cash flow has no hedge. The affordability index of 9 also signals that organic rent growth may face a ceiling, since tenants paying $3,350 per month are already stretched, and further increases depend on continued wage growth or inbound migration from higher-cost markets. Regulatory risk is not characterized in the data, but New York State's broader landlord-tenant legal environment is worth independent research before acquiring here.

Against its neighbors, Suffolk has the best rent-to-price ratio in the comparison set at 0.0551, edging Queens at 0.0499, Rockland at 0.0489, Warren at 0.0454, Westchester at 0.0439, and Richmond at 0.0412. That relative advantage is meaningful: Suffolk generates more rent per dollar of purchase price than any of the five neighbors listed, which means the carry deficit, while still real, is smaller here than in Westchester or Richmond County on equivalent capital. If you are committed to the New York metro and prioritizing the least-bad cash-flow profile among high-cost suburban options, Suffolk clears that bar. Warren County at $356,000 median and a 0.0454 ratio is the outlier in the comp set, a lower-cost entry with a comparable overall score of 51, but it operates in a different market context entirely. An investor who wants New York metro exposure and is choosing between Suffolk and Westchester should favor Suffolk purely on the rent-to-price math. An investor who needs positive cash flow should consider neither.