Sullivan County

Sullivan County sits at a gross rent-to-price ratio of 0.0668, which translates to a 4.34% cap rate at the median purchase price of $323,717. That cap rate is not a cash-flow number, it is a before-financing yield, and once you layer in a 6.85% mortgage on an 80% LTV purchase, the math turns negative fast: estimated monthly cash flow is -$526 on a $64,743 down payment, producing a cash-on-cash return of -8.48%. Where Sullivan earns its place in a portfolio is on the appreciation side, scoring 85 out of 100 on that dimension, with year-over-year home price growth of 4.83% against a median price that is still well below many surrounding markets at $323,717. This is a market that is clearly tilted toward appreciation over current income, and any investor who underwrites it expecting day-one cash flow will be disappointed.

The buyer this market fits is someone who can carry a monthly deficit or deploy meaningful cash to push the loan-to-value down, and who has conviction in continued price appreciation. If you can put down 40-50% rather than 20%, the negative carry narrows substantially and the 4.34% cap rate starts to look like a reasonable entry yield for a market posting 4.83% annual price growth. Value-add operators also have a path here: the median rent of $1,802 leaves room to push rents on upgraded product, and an affordability index of 61 suggests the renter base is not already stretched to the ceiling. Pure cash-flow buyers with a 20% down payment should look elsewhere, because the numbers at conventional financing do not support positive carry at current prices and rates.

The property tax picture in Sullivan County deserves its own line on your underwrite. Using the state-average effective rate of 1.72%, annual property tax on the median purchase comes to $5,568, and when you add $777 in estimated annual insurance, the combined monthly carry for tax and insurance alone is $529. That is not a rounding error; it is 31% of the $1,802 median rent before you have paid a dollar of mortgage, maintenance, or vacancy. New York already carries one of the highest property tax burdens in the country, and at 1.72% the state-average rate is high enough to deserve its own line on your underwrite. Worth noting: this figure is a state-average estimate from Tax Foundation 2024 data, and actual county and township rates in Sullivan can differ materially from that baseline.

Sullivan scores only 50 on stability, which is the number that demands the most attention in a longer-term hold. A population of 78,725 is a thin demand base, and a market of this size can see meaningful rent and occupancy swings if local economic conditions shift. The stability score sits 17 points below the appreciation score, which tells you the price growth story is real but not yet anchored by a deep, diversified economic foundation. Investors should stress-test their models for periods of higher vacancy and slower rent growth, rather than assuming the appreciation trajectory is smooth.

Compared to its neighbors, Sullivan is the highest-priced entry point in the group aside from Putnam County at $541,229, and it carries essentially the same rent-to-price ratio as Monroe County (0.0668 vs. 0.0668) at a $54,000 price premium. Monroe County, at $269,412 median and a near-identical ratio, produces a lower absolute dollar deficit under the same financing terms, which is why a cash-flow-oriented buyer would gravitate there. Wayne County at $236,511 and a 0.0611 ratio is cheaper to buy but generates a worse yield ratio, making it harder to justify on either basis. Cayuga County at $220,162 and a 0.0665 ratio offers comparable yield at roughly two-thirds of Sullivan's price, and a lower absolute dollar exposure, which matters for a first or second rental. The reason to choose Sullivan over any of those neighbors is the appreciation score of 85, the 4.83% annual price growth, and the geographic proximity to New York City demand that likely underlies both. If your thesis is long-term equity build in a market that draws second-home and lifestyle-driven demand, Sullivan makes the case. If your thesis is cash-on-cash return from month one, the neighbors win on price alone.