Warren County

Warren County scores an 88 on appreciation and a 41 on cash flow, which tells you almost everything you need to know about where this market sits on the spectrum. The gross rent-to-price ratio comes in at 4.72%, and the modeled cap rate is 3.07% at a $380,651 purchase price with $1,497 in median monthly rent. Neither number covers a conventional mortgage: at 6.85% on an 80% LTV loan, the monthly principal and interest runs $1,995 against estimated expenses of $524, producing negative $1,022 in monthly cash flow and a cash-on-cash return of -14.01%. Prices rose 5.71% year-over-year, and that appreciation score of 88 out of 100 is the primary engine here. This is not a market where you buy for the check that arrives on the first of the month.

The investor this market suits is one underwriting for long-term price appreciation in a supply-constrained, tourism-adjacent Adirondack market, not one who needs the asset to service itself from rent. A value-add operator buying below median with meaningful rental upside could compress the loss, but the math does not flip to positive cash flow on a standard finance structure at current rates without either a significant price discount or a large down payment that reduces leverage. An all-cash or near-all-cash buyer sees a 3.07% cap rate, which is a thin yield but one that pairs with an 88 appreciation score in a way some long-horizon buyers will accept. The affordability index of 48 and overall score of 56, ranking 479th out of 1,000 counties nationally and 37th out of 62 in New York, confirm this is a middle-of-the-pack market on a composite basis, propped up by the appreciation thesis and dragged down by cash flow.

The carry cost structure in Warren deserves serious attention before you model anything. Using the Tax Foundation 2024 state-average effective rate, property taxes run approximately 1.72% annually, generating an estimated $6,547 per year on this price point. Combined with $914 in annual insurance, the blended monthly tax-and-insurance burden is $622. That is a meaningful number relative to $1,497 in gross rent, consuming 41.5% of the top line before you touch mortgage principal, interest, or maintenance. At 1.72%, the state-average rate is high enough to deserve its own line on your underwrite, and you should verify the actual township or village rate for any specific parcel, because county-level averages in New York routinely diverge from the state figure in both directions. The note in the data is honest about this: treat $622 as a directional estimate, not a guaranteed carry figure.

The risk profile in Warren is largely concentrated in a single theme: the county is small at 65,684 people, and its investment case leans heavily on continued price appreciation in a market that is likely tourism and second-home driven given the Adirondack geography. A market with that demand profile is more sensitive to interest rate cycles than a primary-resident market, because discretionary buyers disappear faster when financing costs rise. The affordability index of 48 suggests the market is already stretched for local earners relative to prices, which constrains the renter pool who can sustain $1,497 in monthly rent and limits organic rent growth from local wage gains alone. No vacancy or crime data was provided, so no further characterization on those dimensions is warranted.

Compared to its neighbors, Warren's 4.72% rent-to-price ratio is nearly identical to Saratoga County at 4.77%, while Saratoga carries a slightly higher overall score of 58 versus Warren's 56 and a median price of $441,120. An investor choosing between the two is essentially choosing whether to pay up for Saratoga's arguably more diverse economic base. Ulster County at 5.93% rent-to-price and an overall score of 56 offers meaningfully better gross yield for the same overall score, making it the stronger cash-flow-tilted alternative in the region. Bronx County at 6.83% rent-to-price is the highest-yielding neighbor listed, though it comes with a $486,304 median price and the regulatory and operational complexity of New York City. Wyoming County at a $197,819 median price scores 59 overall, making it the only neighbor that outscores Warren while being far cheaper in absolute terms, though no rent data was provided for Wyoming. The case for Warren over its neighbors rests almost entirely on the appreciation score of 88, which is the highest in this peer group. If your hold thesis is five-plus years and price appreciation is the return driver, Warren makes the argument. If you need yield or affordability, look at Ulster or Wyoming first.