Wayne market analysis
Wayne County sits at a gross rent-to-price ratio of 10.2%, which is well above the threshold where cash flow becomes achievable without heroic leverage. At a $179,054 median purchase price and $1,518 median monthly rent, the math pencils before you touch value-add assumptions. The modeled cap rate comes in at 6.62% on a straightforward buy, with a monthly cash flow estimate of $49 after a $939 mortgage payment and $531 in estimated expenses at 20% down and a 6.85% rate. That $49 figure is thin in nominal terms, but the cash-on-cash of 1.43% at these rates is not the story here: the cap rate is. An unlevered 6.62% in a market where the median home is under $180,000 means you can deploy capital at scale without chasing expensive deals. Appreciation is a different conversation: the year-over-year home price change is negative 0.63%, and the appreciation score of 47 out of 100 signals this market does not reward you for sitting still on equity growth. Wayne ranks 88th nationally out of 1,000 counties modeled and second in North Carolina out of 100, which tells you most of the state offers worse cash-flow dynamics than this.
The investor this market suits is a cash-flow buyer, specifically one prioritizing yield over total return. A $35,811 down payment to control a cash-flowing rental at a 6.62% cap rate is an accessible entry point for building a portfolio of multiple doors rather than concentrating capital in one appreciation play. The affordability index of 92 out of 100 means the tenant pool is drawing from a market where buying is not cheap relative to local incomes, which supports sustained rental demand rather than tenant attrition to homeownership. Value-add operators also have a reasonable runway: at a $179,054 median, a $20,000 renovation that pushes rent from $1,200 to $1,600 on a distressed acquisition still keeps the all-in basis well below $220,000, where the rent-to-price math remains compelling. Appreciation-focused buyers should look elsewhere; the score of 47 and the negative price trend make this a poor vehicle for equity compounding.
The monthly tax and insurance burden of $167 is already baked into the expense estimate above, and at a blended property tax rate of 0.84% (a state-average estimate from Tax Foundation 2024, with the honest caveat that your actual county or township rate may differ), Wayne sits in normal territory. This is not a headwind. There is no outsized insurance drag evident from the 0.28% insurance rate. Investors should still verify the specific Wayne County millage rate before finalizing their underwrite, but the state average does not raise a flag the way it would in New Jersey or Illinois.
The risk profile here is worth naming clearly. A population of 117,480 is mid-sized for a North Carolina county but not large enough to absorb a major employer departure without consequences to rental demand. The stability score of 50 reflects this. If your investment thesis depends on continued occupancy and rent growth, understanding the local employment base matters more here than it would in a metro with a diversified labor market. No economic anchor data was provided, so this analysis cannot speak to specific employers, but an investor should conduct that due diligence independently before committing to scale. A single-market concentration of more than three or four doors in a county this size also deserves scrutiny; vacancy correlation across a portfolio concentrates in a downturn when employers contract.
Compared to its neighbors in the data, Wayne's case is straightforward. Davidson County has a median price of $264,061 and a rent-to-price ratio of 6.57%, nearly four full percentage points below Wayne's 10.18%, with a lower overall score of 65 versus Wayne's 73. Cherokee County runs even higher at $274,117 with a 7.11% ratio and an overall score of 62. Cumberland County comes closest as a competitor at a 7.50% ratio and a $227,591 median, but still scores 61 against Wayne's 73. Northampton County scores 78 overall, three points above Wayne, at a much lower $115,952 median, which may appeal to investors with limited capital or a higher risk tolerance for a smaller market. Perquimans scores 68 at $264,692 with no rent data provided, making it harder to underwrite from these inputs alone. Choose Wayne over most of these neighbors when your primary objective is a replicable, cash-flow-positive rental at a sub-$180,000 entry point with favorable state-level carry costs. Choose Northampton if basis compression is the priority and you accept a smaller, likely less liquid market.
Scenario comparison
| Scenario | Purchase price | Monthly cash flow | Cap rate | Cash-on-cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
75% of median value-add or distressed | $134,291 | +$284/mo | 8.8% | +11.0% |
Median typical MLS deal | $179,054 | +$49/mo | 6.6% | +1.4% |
125% of median newer / premium | $223,818 | -$186/mo | 5.3% | -4.3% |
Price History
Median Home Price
Median Rent
Historical data from Zillow ZHVI/ZORI
Quick Investment Calculator
Purchase
Monthly Cash Flow
* Based on county median values. 35% expenses include taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, and property management. Actual results vary by property.
Score Breakdown
Based on 10.18% rent-to-price ratio. Higher ratios indicate stronger cash flow potential.
Based on -0.6% YoY price growth. Moderate growth (3-8%) scores highest.
Population data not available.
Based on price relative to estimated local incomes.
Scores are calculated using real Zillow home value and rent data, Census population data, and economic indicators. The weighted average produces the overall investment score. Markets with missing rent data use estimated values based on regional averages.
Investment Outlook
Strengths
- +Above-average rent-to-price ratio (10.18%)
- +Affordable relative to local incomes
- +Complete rent data available
Challenges
- -Declining home values (-0.6% YoY)
- -Negative leverage (cap rate 6.6% < mortgage rate 6.9%)
Economic Indicators
Who this market fits
- +Value-add operators who can buy below median and force rent up
- −You can't tolerate negative leverage (cap rate below mortgage rate today)
- −You expect appreciation to carry the deal, but prices have declined year over year
Compare to Nearby Counties
Section 8 in Wayne County: payment standards by ZIP, PHA waitlist status, and voucher counts are on VoucherMatch, the same HUD dataset with the tenant demand side attached.
The Bottom Line
Wayne County in North Carolina scores 73/100, ranking #88 of 1,000 US counties (top 11%). At 20% down and current rates, a median-priced rental roughly breaks even on cash flow (10.18% gross rent-to-price ratio). The deal works on appreciation or with better terms, not on month-one cash flow.