McLean market analysis
McLean County sits at a median home price of $223,993, up 5.17% year-over-year, with an affordability index of 82 out of 100. The data does not include rental rate or net operating income figures, so cap rate and cash-on-cash return are both listed at zero in the model, meaning this county cannot be underwritten as a yield play on current numbers alone. What it does show is an appreciation score of 87 out of 100 and a national percentile ranking of 91st out of 1,000 counties, placing it firmly on the appreciation end of the spectrum rather than the cash-flow end. With a population of 9,781 and a stability score of 50, this is a market where price growth is outpacing what a conventional rental income model can support, and investors need to be clear-eyed about that before committing capital.
The investor this market suits is someone buying for price appreciation in a low-cost-basis environment rather than someone who needs a property to carry itself from day one. At $223,993 with a 20% down payment of $44,799, the entry ticket is accessible, and the 5.17% annual price gain is meaningful in dollar terms on that asset base. A cash-flow buyer will find this frustrating: without a cap rate or positive cash-on-cash return in the data, there is no current yield story to tell. An appreciation buyer who can weather negative or breakeven carry, perhaps subsidized by a long-term tenant covering most of the mortgage, has the cleaner case. A value-add operator would need to see local rental comps before underwriting any forced-appreciation strategy, and that data is not present here.
No economic anchors or employer data were provided for McLean County, so the underlying drivers of rental demand and job stability cannot be attributed to specific entities. What the population figure of 9,781 does signal is a small, rural county where tenant pools are narrow and vacancy risk is structurally higher than in a metro market. Investors accustomed to 50-unit tenant pipelines will find the math tighter here.
On carrying costs, the combined monthly tax and insurance figure is $248, based on a state-average effective property tax rate of 0.98% and an insurance rate of 0.35%. The 0.98% rate is flagged as "normal," meaning it is neither a tailwind nor a meaningful drag relative to national norms, but at $2,195 annually it is a real line item on a property generating uncertain rental income. The insurance figure of $784 annually is worth noting for North Dakota specifically, where severe weather exposure can push actual policy costs above state averages. As the data source states, these are state-average estimates and actual county or township rates may differ, so pulling the specific McLean County mill levy before closing is a standard step, not an optional one.
The principal risk here is concentration combined with thin liquidity. A county of under 10,000 people means that a single employer contraction, an agricultural downturn, or a demographic outflow event can meaningfully shift both rental demand and resale values. With a stability score of exactly 50, the data is already flagging this as a coin-flip on market steadiness. Investors who need to exit within a three-to-five-year window should underwrite a longer days-on-market assumption and a narrower buyer pool at resale.
Compared to its neighbors, McLean at $223,993 sits in the middle of the price range. Oliver County is slightly higher at $244,648 with the same overall score of 74, meaning you pay more for no additional modeled advantage. Bowman County at $180,669 and Barnes County at $187,323 both score 75, one point higher than McLean, at meaningfully lower entry prices, which matters if yield or forced appreciation is the thesis. Hettinger County is the outlier at $121,524 with a 75 score, offering the lowest basis in this peer group and the highest relative upside if appreciation continues, though the tradeoffs on tenant pool depth and liquidity apply even more acutely there. Mountrail County at $236,745 scores 73, making it the most expensive option with the lowest score in this set. McLean makes the most sense over its neighbors when an investor specifically wants exposure to North Dakota price appreciation at a median basis, has patience for a thin rental market, and is not dependent on the property generating positive monthly cash flow from the outset.
Price History
Median Home Price
Median Rent
Historical data from Zillow ZHVI/ZORI
Score Breakdown
Rent data not available for cash flow calculation.
Based on 5.2% YoY price growth. Moderate growth (3-8%) scores highest.
Population data not available.
Based on price relative to estimated local incomes.
Scores are calculated using real Zillow home value and rent data, Census population data, and economic indicators. The weighted average produces the overall investment score. Markets with missing rent data use estimated values based on regional averages.
Investment Outlook
Strengths
- +Strong price appreciation (+5.2% YoY)
- +Affordable relative to local incomes
Challenges
- -Negative leverage (cap rate 0.0% < mortgage rate 6.9%)
- -Limited rent data (estimates used)
Economic Indicators
Who this market fits
- +Appreciation buyers: YoY growth is meaningfully above the long-run average
- −You can't tolerate negative leverage (cap rate below mortgage rate today)
Compare to Nearby Counties
The Bottom Line
McLean County in North Dakota scores 74/100, ranking #74 of 1,000 US counties (top 9%). At 20% down and current rates, a median-priced rental roughly breaks even on cash flow. The deal works on appreciation or with better terms, not on month-one cash flow.