Nelson County

Nelson County, North Dakota scores 81 overall and ranks 4th nationally out of 1,000 counties, landing in the 100th national percentile and first in the state among 43 counties. That's a striking headline number, and it's driven almost entirely by appreciation and affordability, not cash flow. The appreciation score is 92, affordability is 97, and the cash flow score is 0. The median home price sits at $156,048, up 6.96% year over year, and the affordability index of 97 signals the market is extremely accessible relative to incomes. There are no estimated cap rate or cash-on-cash figures in the data, which is consistent with the zero cash flow score, meaning this market is not structured for day-one income. An investor expecting a going-in yield should look elsewhere.

The profile here is pure appreciation play combined with a low-dollar entry point, not a cash-flow-from-day-one strategy. At $156,048 median, the 20% down payment is roughly $31,210, which is an unusually low capital commitment for a real estate investment. The 6.96% year-over-year price appreciation is the engine driving the overall score, and for an investor with a 5-to-10-year horizon who wants to park equity at low cost and ride price gains in a supply-constrained rural market, this setup has logic. Value-add operators face a different calculus: rents would need to be high enough to cover a $173 monthly tax and insurance load plus mortgage at 6.85%, and without rent or expense data showing that penciling, any repositioning story is speculative. The county does not suit a cash-flow buyer based on the data provided.

The tax and insurance burden here is not a red flag. At a state-average effective property tax rate of 0.98%, Nelson carries a normal tax flag, which means it's not a headwind the way high-tax states can be. Annual property tax comes to roughly $1,529, insurance to $546, and combined monthly carry for those two line items is $173. That's a light load for a $156,000 asset, and it means the non-mortgage operating costs don't eat the deal before you get to debt service. The caveat the data itself flags is worth repeating: the 0.98% figure is a state-average estimate from the Tax Foundation's 2024 data, and actual county or township rates in Nelson may differ, so pull the assessor records before you finalize any underwrite.

The material risk in Nelson County is demographic and concentration. The population is 3,025. That is not a typo. Markets this small carry real tenant pool risk: one employer closure, one bad harvest season, or continued outmigration can leave a landlord holding a property with no qualified applicants. Rural North Dakota counties of this size have in many cases been losing population for decades, and while the appreciation score suggests recent price momentum, a thin buyer pool on the exit also means liquidity risk when it's time to sell. No economic anchor or employer data was provided, so there is no named institutional demand driver to anchor rental demand, and an investor should do ground-level diligence on what is actually keeping residents in the county before committing capital.

Compared to its neighbors in the data, Nelson is the lowest-priced market at $156,048, meaningfully below Foster County at $177,105, Golden Valley at $179,434, Barnes at $187,323, and McLean at $209,561. Nelson also carries the highest overall score at 81, edging Golden Valley and McLean at 78, Foster at 77, and Barnes and Hettinger at 75 and 75 respectively. The one outlier worth noting is Hettinger County, which comes in even cheaper at $121,524, though it scores only 75 overall. The case for choosing Nelson over its neighbors comes down to entry price combined with the top-state appreciation score: you get the most favorable price-to-appreciation combination in this peer group. If cash flow were the priority, none of these markets are presenting it in the data, and an investor would need to evaluate actual rents across all five counties before choosing one over another on income grounds. Nelson wins on appreciation momentum and affordability; if those aren't your criteria, the neighbor comparison doesn't change the calculus.