Pembina County

Pembina County sits at a median home price of $150,217, a 7.68% year-over-year appreciation rate, and an affordability index of 98 out of 100, which places it first nationally out of 1,000 counties ranked. That combination tells you something specific: this is an exceptionally cheap market that is appreciating at a pace well above what its price point would suggest. The cap rate and cash-flow figures are not available in the underlying data, so the cash-flow math cannot be completed here, but the appreciation score of 94 out of 100 and the affordability score of 98 make the directional story clear. Entry cost is low, price momentum is real, and you are not paying a premium to access either of those attributes.

The investor profile this market suits most directly is the appreciation buyer who can stomach a small, thinly populated county in exchange for outsized price growth relative to purchase cost. At $150,217 median, a standard 20% down payment is roughly $30,000, which means the equity leverage on a 7.68% annual price gain is meaningful without a large capital commitment. A value-add operator could also find opportunity here precisely because the price floor is so low, and any forced appreciation through renovation compounds against an already-moving base. The cash-flow score is listed at zero, which signals that rental income alone, net of expenses, is unlikely to be the return driver. Investors who need month-one cash flow to service their own obligations should treat that score seriously and stress-test rent assumptions carefully before committing.

On carry costs, the combined monthly tax and insurance estimate comes to $167, using a state-average effective property tax rate of 0.98% and an insurance rate of 0.35% on the $150,217 purchase price. That tax rate is flagged as normal, so it is neither a tailwind nor a headwind that demands special attention in your underwrite. The caveat worth noting: this is a state-average estimate from Tax Foundation 2024 data, and actual county or township rates in Pembina can deviate from that figure. Pull the county assessor data before closing. At $167 per month all-in for taxes and insurance, the fixed carry cost is modest relative to most markets, which partly offsets the uncertain cash-flow picture.

The specific risk profile here centers on concentration and demographics. A population of 6,853 means the rental pool is thin. A single large employer adding or shedding jobs, a modest out-migration trend, or a softening in agricultural activity can shift vacancy in ways that a market of 500,000 people would absorb without much notice. No economic anchor data was provided for this county, so the composition of local demand cannot be assessed from this dataset. The stability score of 50 out of 100, sitting at the midpoint, reflects that uncertainty. Small rural North Dakota counties can be resilient, but they are not diversified, and an investor should treat tenant turnover as a higher operational risk than in a larger metro.

Against its neighbors, Pembina's case is straightforward on price. Golden Valley County comes in at $179,434 with an overall score of 78, McLean at $209,561 with a score of 78, Foster at $177,105 with a score of 77, and Barnes at $187,323 with a score of 75. Only Hettinger County is cheaper at $121,524, and Hettinger scores 75 overall versus Pembina's 82. Pembina is simultaneously the highest-scoring and among the lowest-priced options in this peer set, which is an unusual combination. The rational case for choosing Pembina over any of these neighbors is that you get the best appreciation score in the group at the second-lowest entry price, with the lowest overall score risk-adjusted against cost. The rational case against it is that the same small-market concentration risk applies here as anywhere in rural North Dakota, and cash-flow buyers would need to underwrite rent levels carefully in a county with under 7,000 residents before drawing conclusions the score alone cannot support.