Erie County

Erie County sits at a 9.04% rent-to-price ratio against a median home price of $240,422 and median rent of $1,811.56. That gross yield is high enough to generate a 5.88% cap rate, which puts it firmly in cash-flow territory for an unleveraged buyer. Levered at 6.85% on a 20% down payment, however, the modeled cash flow turns slightly negative at -$83 per month and a -1.8% cash-on-cash return, meaning the deal pencils on an asset basis but doesn't carry itself at current financing rates without either a below-list purchase or value-add rent upside. Home prices grew 3.43% year-over-year, which is meaningful appreciation on a $240K asset but secondary to the yield story here. Erie lands in the 95th percentile nationally out of 1,000 counties ranked, and 8th in Ohio out of 88, so the market is genuinely competitive among peers, not just regionally.

The cash-flow score of 90 and appreciation score of 81 together suggest this county threads an unusual needle: it's primarily a yield market with a credible secondary appreciation case. A cash-flow buyer who can negotiate 5-8% below ask, or who buys with less leverage and accepts a lower cash-on-cash in exchange for asset yield, has a workable entry here. The -$83/month modeled shortfall is thin enough that modest rent growth or a slightly better purchase price closes it. A pure appreciation buyer can also find justification in the 3.43% price growth and an affordability index of 78, which suggests the median home remains accessible to the local renter pool, supporting continued demand without pricing out tenants. A value-add operator who can force rents above the $1,811 median will move the cash-on-cash meaningfully, since the fixed costs (mortgage, tax, insurance) don't scale with rent.

At 1.56%, Ohio's state-average effective property tax rate is high enough to deserve its own line on your underwrite. The modeled $359 per month in combined tax and insurance ($313 in tax alone on an annualized basis) is a real drag relative to the gross rent: that's roughly 20% of the $1,811 median rent going purely to carry before debt service or maintenance. Note that the 1.56% figure is a state-average estimate per Tax Foundation 2024 data, and actual Erie County or township-level rates may differ, so verify the assessed value and millage rate on any specific parcel before closing. The insurance component, at 0.23% or $46/month, is comparatively modest and not a swing factor.

The stability score of 50 is the number that demands attention. It's the lowest subscores in Erie's profile and the one most worth stress-testing. A stability score at the midpoint suggests demographic or economic fragility that the yield and appreciation numbers don't capture. Erie County's population of 75,299 is relatively small, and no economic anchors were provided in this data set, so the job-base concentration and employer diversity questions remain open. Small-market rentals with thin labor markets can absorb vacancies poorly, and a 75K-person county is susceptible to outsized swings if one major employer reduces headcount. The affordability index of 78 (below 100, meaning the median household cannot fully afford the median home) implies the renter pool is structurally deep, which supports demand, but it also concentrates tenants in the lower-to-middle income bands where rent collection risk is higher during economic stress.

Comparing Erie to its neighbors sharpens the positioning. Lucas County (median price $169,370, rent $1,104.81, rent-to-price 7.83%, overall score 75) and Trumbull County (median price $160,493, rent $1,068.92, rent-to-price 7.99%, overall score 77) both offer lower entry prices but yield materially less rent and a lower gross ratio. An investor chasing the lowest acquisition cost should look at Scioto ($135,788) or Crawford ($152,867), though neither has rent or yield data available for direct comparison. Van Wert County at $186,971 and an overall score of 77 sits between Erie and the lower-priced alternatives. Erie's 9.04% rent-to-price ratio is demonstrably better than both Lucas and Trumbull, the two neighbors with comparable rent data, justifying the higher entry price for a yield-focused buyer. Choose Erie over its neighbors when you want the best documented rent yield among comparable Ohio markets and can accept the stability risk; choose Lucas or Trumbull when your priority is minimizing absolute capital at risk and you're comfortable underwriting the lower rent ceiling yourself.