Mayes County

Mayes County sits at a gross rent-to-price ratio of 7.1%, which places it squarely in the middle ground between pure cash-flow markets and pure appreciation plays. The cap rate on a standard acquisition comes in at 4.6%, which is respectable for Oklahoma but not enough to overcome the financing math at 6.85%: the model underwrite shows a monthly cash flow of negative $309 on a 20% down purchase, translating to a cash-on-cash return of -7.36%. That gap between cap rate and borrowing cost is the central fact about this market right now. The home price appreciation of 4.4% year-over-year, combined with an appreciation score of 84 out of 100, tells you where the market's actual return engine is. At a median price of $219,127 and an affordability index of 83, the entry point is low enough that small pricing shifts matter meaningfully to total return.

This market suits an appreciation-oriented buyer who can absorb negative carry in the near term and expects either rising rents, falling rates, or continued price growth to close the gap. The appreciation score of 84 ranks among the better readings in Oklahoma, and the 4.4% YoY price gain supports that view. A cash-flow buyer relying on month-one distributions should look elsewhere: the numbers don't clear at current rates without a material discount to the $219,127 median or a rent premium above the $1,292 median. A value-add operator who can push rents on distressed or underimproved assets has a path, but the rent ceiling in a county of 39,000 people is a real constraint on how far those rents can move before you're above market.

The economic context here is thin by the data provided, so no specific employer anchors are named. What the demographic picture does signal is concentration risk: 39,324 residents is a small pool, and rental demand in markets this size tends to be narrower and more sensitive to single large employer moves or population shifts. The stability score of 50 out of 100 reflects that exposure directly. This isn't a market where you can underwrite vacancy assumptions loosely.

On carrying costs, the combined monthly tax and insurance burden comes to $296, which is already baked into the estimated expenses figure of $452 per month. The state-average effective property tax rate of 0.90% sits in normal territory, meaning it's neither a tailwind worth advertising nor a problem worth flagging as a line-item risk on its own. The insurance rate at 0.72% of value annually adds $1,578 per year, which is standard for Oklahoma but worth watching given the state's hail and wind exposure. As always, these figures use a state-average estimate and county or township rates may differ, so pulling the actual Mayes County assessor data before closing is non-negotiable.

The most meaningful risk here is the combination of small population, a stability score of 50, and negative cash flow at current rates. If occupancy slips or a rate-sensitive refinance doesn't materialize, the total return story depends entirely on appreciation continuing at or above the 4.4% pace. That's a single-variable bet in a small market with limited demand depth.

Against the neighbors, Mayes competes credibly. Its rent-to-price ratio of 7.1% beats Custer County's 6.4% despite a higher median price ($219,127 versus $178,537), which means you're getting more rent per dollar deployed. Adair County comes in cheaper at $168,812 and carries a similar overall score of 72, so investors hunting pure affordability should note that gap. McIntosh County at $195,367 and an overall score of 73 is slightly cheaper and slightly better-scored, making it worth a direct comparison. Seminole County at $115,715 is the outlier on price, but its overall score of 69 suggests the market fundamentals don't compensate for whatever is keeping prices that low. Kingfisher County at $225,453 and a score of 72 is the most comparable entry point to Mayes but doesn't outperform it on overall score. Choose Mayes over its neighbors when you're prioritizing appreciation potential, specifically the 84 appreciation score, and you're comfortable holding through a period of negative cash flow while the market's price trajectory does the work.