Rogers County

Rogers County sits at a gross rent-to-price ratio of 6.02%, which places it firmly on the appreciation side of the cash-flow vs. appreciation spectrum. At a median home price of $284,951 and median rent of $1,430, the numbers produce a cap rate of 3.91% at current valuations, well below the threshold most cash-flow investors require to cover debt service at 6.85%. The model underwrite confirms this: a 20% down payment ($56,990) generates a monthly mortgage of $1,494, and after $501 in estimated expenses the property bleeds $564 per month, yielding a cash-on-cash return of -10.33%. Price appreciation of 3.3% year-over-year and an appreciation score of 81 out of 100 tell you what the market is pricing in, and it is not yield. The affordability index of 69 and national percentile rank of 68 (253rd out of 1,000 counties) suggest the county is neither a bargain basement nor an overheated coastal market, but a mid-tier market where entry costs are rising faster than rents are moving to compensate.

This market suits an appreciation-oriented buyer who can carry negative cash flow and is betting on continued price growth near the Tulsa metro fringe. It does not suit a cash-flow buyer. The -10.33% cash-on-cash at 6.85% financing is not a rounding error, it is a structural feature of a 6.02% gross yield environment. A value-add operator might close part of that gap by pushing rents above the county median, but the math requires a significant rent premium over $1,430 just to get to breakeven, let alone a meaningful return on the $56,990 deployed. The stability score of 50 adds a caution: this is not a set-it-and-forget-it market, and an investor who needs reliable cash flow to service the carry has limited margin for vacancy or capex surprises.

No economic anchor data was provided for Rogers County, so employer-specific demand drivers cannot be assessed here. What the data does show is a county of roughly 95,870 people with a population base large enough to sustain a functional rental market but not so large that institutional competition is the defining pressure. Rental demand context beyond the median rent figure is not available in this dataset.

The monthly tax and insurance load of $385 is already embedded in the $501 estimated expenses figure, and at a state-average effective property tax rate of 0.90% it is flagged as normal, meaning it is neither a tailwind nor a particular headwind relative to other Oklahoma markets. That said, $2,565 in annual property tax and $2,052 in annual insurance on a $285,000 asset are real line items, and you should verify the actual county and township rate before closing since the 0.90% figure is a state-average estimate from Tax Foundation 2024 data and local levies can deviate materially.

The concentration risk worth flagging is the moderate stability score of 50, which in the context of a market already producing negative cash flow means any softening in rents or occupancy compresses returns that have no cushion to absorb it. No vacancy or crime statistics are available in this dataset to quantify that risk further, but the score alone is reason to stress-test your assumptions at 90% occupancy before committing capital.

Compared to neighboring counties, Rogers is the premium-priced, lower-yielding option in a peer group that skews toward more favorable rent-to-price ratios. Muskogee County carries a gross yield of 8.57% at a median price of $150,587, more than two full percentage points above Rogers and at roughly half the entry cost. Payne County matches Rogers almost dollar-for-dollar on median rent ($1,430) but at a $232,536 median price, producing a 7.38% gross yield against Rogers' 6.02%. Stephens County offers a 7.72% gross yield at a $137,837 entry point. An investor who prioritizes cash flow or wants to deploy capital across multiple doors should look hard at Muskogee or Payne first. Rogers makes sense over a neighbor only when the specific thesis is price appreciation in the Tulsa suburban corridor, where the 3.3% year-over-year gain and 81 appreciation score differentiate it from the pack, and when the investor has the balance sheet to absorb negative cash flow while that thesis plays out.