Wagoner County

Wagoner County posts a gross rent-to-price ratio of 6.92% and a cap rate of 4.5%, which places it in the middle stretch of the cash-flow-to-appreciation spectrum, leaning slightly toward appreciation. At a $283,777 median purchase price and $1,635 median monthly rent, the raw yield is competitive enough to attract attention, but the model underwrite at 6.85% interest tells the more complete story: after a $1,488 monthly mortgage, $572 in estimated expenses, and a $383 monthly tax-and-insurance load, the property runs at negative $424 per month cash-on-cash, producing a -7.8% cash-on-cash return. The 4.5% cap rate is the honest number to anchor to here, and it reflects a market that pencils better on an unleveraged or lower-leverage basis than it does with today's conventional financing. Home prices grew 2.75% year-over-year, and the appreciation score of 77 out of 100 is the highest individual score in the dataset, suggesting the market has historically rewarded patience on the equity side even when monthly cash flow has been tight.

Given those numbers, this market fits the appreciation buyer or the hybrid investor who can absorb short-term negative carry in exchange for price growth and who underwrites to a longer hold period. It does not suit a pure cash-flow buyer running at 20% down and 6.85% debt cost. The -7.8% cash-on-cash return is a real drag, not a rounding error, and a cash-flow buyer should price that gap honestly before committing capital. Where Wagoner becomes more interesting is for a value-add operator who can acquire below the $283,777 median, force appreciation through renovation, and push rents above the $1,635 median to close the debt-service gap. The affordability index of 69 and overall national percentile rank of 70th out of 1,000 counties suggest there is still room to find deals, though the stability score of 50 warrants attention as a risk signal.

On the economic side, no specific employer anchors were provided in the data, so the rental demand story cannot be grounded in named institutions. What the numbers do signal is that an 82,269-person county with a 2.75% annual price appreciation rate is attracting enough demand to move prices, even if the current rent level has not yet caught up with what mortgage debt costs to carry.

The combined monthly tax and insurance estimate of $383 is material but not punishing. At a state-average effective property tax rate of 0.90%, Oklahoma sits in the normal range, and the propertyTaxFlag confirms this. That said, the tax-and-insurance line item consumes roughly 23% of gross monthly rent on this model property, so it deserves its own cell on your underwrite rather than being folded into a generic expense ratio. The 0.72% insurance rate adds $170 per month to carrying costs. Both figures are state-average estimates from Tax Foundation 2024 data, and actual Wagoner County township-level rates may differ, so pull the county assessor's numbers before finalizing any deal-level model.

The primary risk visible in the data is stability. The stability score of 50 out of 100 is the lowest score in Wagoner's profile by a meaningful margin, sitting well below its cash-flow score of 69 and appreciation score of 77. The data does not provide vacancy rates or employment concentration figures, so the specific driver of that score cannot be named here. What it does mean is that an investor should stress-test occupancy assumptions more aggressively in Wagoner than the headline rent and appreciation numbers alone might suggest, and should not underwrite to full occupancy in year one.

Compared to its neighbors, Wagoner occupies a clear niche. Payne County offers a higher rent-to-price ratio of 7.38% at a $232,536 median price, making it the better entry point for a pure cash-flow investor who needs positive leverage at conventional rates. Tulsa County is cheaper at $244,543 but produces a lower 6.77% ratio, meaning Wagoner actually out-yields Tulsa on a gross basis despite the higher price. Muskogee County is the outlier in this peer group: a $150,587 median price and an 8.57% ratio that is the most cash-flow-favorable by a significant margin, though its overall score of 65 signals trade-offs that a buyer would need to investigate. Canadian County is the closest comparable to Wagoner at a $267,590 median and a 6.89% ratio, nearly identical yield at a slightly lower price. Choose Wagoner over Canadian if you believe the 2.75% price growth trend and the 77 appreciation score reflect structural demand rather than noise, and you are positioned to hold through the negative carry. Choose Payne or Muskogee if monthly cash flow is a requirement from day one.