Tillamook County

Tillamook County sits at a median home price of $512,935 against a median rent of $2,104, producing a gross rent-to-price ratio of 4.92%. That figure is thin. The modeled cap rate comes in at 3.2%, and the cash-on-cash return at a 20% down payment and 6.85% financing is negative 13.44%, with estimated monthly cash flow of negative $1,321. The mortgage alone runs $2,689 against $2,104 in rent, so you are underwater before a single expense hits the ledger. The estimated $736 in monthly expenses (taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy reserves) widens that gap further. Home prices are essentially flat, down 0.48% year-over-year, so there is no recent appreciation story to offset the carry losses either. The overall score of 43 out of 100 and a national percentile rank of 8 (721st out of 1,000 counties) confirm that this market is a poor performer by nearly every investment metric the model captures.

The investor profile this county suits is narrow. A pure cash-flow buyer has no business here: the numbers produce a guaranteed monthly loss under standard financing, and the rent-to-price ratio of 4.92% is not close to the thresholds that generate positive leverage. An appreciation buyer faces a 0.48% price decline over the past year and an affordability index of just 27, meaning the pool of prospective buyers able to absorb further price growth is severely limited. A value-add operator might find opportunity if they can acquire meaningfully below the $512,935 median, force appreciation through renovation, and hold for a long-term exit to a second-home or lifestyle buyer, but that strategy requires off-market sourcing and a specific read on the coastal tourism segment, not a straightforward rental play. The stability score of 50 and appreciation score of 48 suggest a market that is treading water rather than compounding.

No economic anchor data was provided for Tillamook County. What the population figure of 27,345 does tell you is that this is a small, rural coastal market. Thin population bases generally mean thinner rental demand, less diversified tenant pools, and longer vacancy exposure when a unit turns. That demographic reality amplifies the cash-flow risk already visible in the headline numbers.

The tax and insurance picture is not a crisis, but it is worth understanding. At Oregon's state-average effective property tax rate of 0.97%, the annual tax bill on a $512,935 purchase comes to roughly $4,975, and insurance adds approximately $975, for a combined $496 per month in tax and insurance carry. That is a meaningful line item, representing nearly two-thirds of the $736 total estimated monthly expenses. The 0.97% rate carries a "normal" flag, so it is not an outlier, but on a $512,000 purchase it still stacks real dollars against a rent check that already does not cover the mortgage. Per the data source, this is a state-average effective rate from Tax Foundation 2024; the actual Tillamook County rate may differ, and you should pull the county assessor's current levy before underwriting any specific address.

The specific risk worth flagging is concentration and demographic fragility. A county of 27,345 people on the Oregon coast is heavily exposed to tourism-driven economic cycles and has a limited base of year-round renters. If the local economy softens or if short-term rental regulation tightens (a common policy direction in coastal Oregon communities), demand for long-term rentals could contract quickly with few alternative tenant sources to absorb inventory. The negative 0.48% price trend and a 3.2% cap rate leave almost no margin for a demand shock.

Against its neighbors, Tillamook's 4.92% rent-to-price ratio is actually competitive in raw terms, edging out Yamhill County at 4.62%, Crook County at 4.19%, and Polk County at 4.34%, and nearly matching Lane County at 4.86%. But rent-to-price ratio alone does not win the argument when the absolute rent level ($2,104) still falls $585 short of the monthly mortgage. Lane County, with a lower median price of $446,037, a rent of $1,806, and an overall score of 44, is modestly better positioned and benefits from Eugene's more diversified economic base. Polk County at $470,528 median and an overall score of 45 also edges Tillamook on the composite score. Josephine County is the cheapest entry point among the listed neighbors at $384,522, though its rent of $1,511 and rent-to-price ratio of 4.72% produce a similar cash-flow problem at scale. You would choose Tillamook over these neighbors only if you have a specific coastal asset, an acquisition well below market, or a dual long-term rental and lifestyle exit thesis. On pure investment fundamentals, the neighboring counties are not meaningfully better, but they are not worse enough to make Tillamook a contrarian bet worth defending.