Crawford County

Crawford County sits at a gross rent-to-price ratio of 6.11%, which translates to a cap rate of 3.97% on a standard underwrite. At a $175,975 purchase price and $896 median rent, the math at today's financing rates produces negative cash flow: a 20% down buyer running a 6.85% mortgage faces a $922 monthly payment, and after estimated expenses of $314 the model shows negative $340 per month, a cash-on-cash return of -10.08%. That number is real and it matters. The case for Crawford is not cash flow, at least not at current rates with conventional financing. It is appreciation: the market scored 92 out of 100 on appreciation, home prices grew 7.04% year-over-year, and the county ranks in the 86th percentile nationally out of 1,000 counties tracked. The affordability index of 92 means there is still room to run before prices price out the local buyer pool. Crawford is firmly in the appreciation column of the cash-flow-versus-appreciation spectrum, and any investor who underwrites it expecting income from day one will be disappointed.

The investor this market suits is either an appreciation buyer with a long time horizon and enough reserves to carry negative cash flow, or a cash buyer who sidesteps the mortgage math entirely. At $175,975 median, the entry price is low enough that a cash buyer or a buyer with significant equity from a 1031 can get to breakeven or slightly positive without leverage. A value-add operator hunting distressed assets below median could potentially find deals where rents push above the $896 median enough to close the gap, but the base-case rent-to-price ratio of 6.11% is not generous enough to make that easy at full leverage. The 50 out of 100 stability score is a flag: the income base here is not bulletproof, and a cash-flow buyer who needs consistent rent collection to service debt is taking real risk. The 61 cash-flow score confirms this is a below-average income market relative to the national dataset.

No economic anchor data was provided for Crawford County, so this analysis will not speculate on employers or industry concentration. What the population figure of 83,876 does indicate is a small, secondary market, not a major metro, and secondary markets with modest populations carry inherent demand risk if the tenant pool shrinks.

The carry cost picture deserves a direct look. Pennsylvania's state-average effective property tax rate is 1.54%, flagged as high, and on a $175,975 purchase that produces an estimated $2,710 in annual property tax, or roughly $226 per month. Combined with estimated insurance of $34 per month ($405 annually at 0.23%), total monthly tax and insurance runs approximately $260. That $260 is a real line on your underwrite before you get to maintenance, management, and vacancy. At a 1.54% rate, property tax alone consumes more than 25% of the gross rent on this median asset. Worth flagging: this is a state-average estimate from Tax Foundation 2024 data, and actual Crawford County or township rates may differ, so pull the specific millage rate before you finalize any deal.

The stability score of 50 is the market's clearest warning signal. A small-county Pennsylvania market without a named economic anchor in the data is exposed to population attrition, employer concentration, and limited rent growth if the local economy softens. None of that is fabricated here, but the score exists for a reason, and an investor should research the county's employment base independently before committing capital.

Crawford's neighbors in the dataset give useful context. Beaver County, Luzerne County, and Lackawanna County all carry higher rent-to-price ratios (6.67%, 7.25%, and 6.91% respectively) and higher absolute rents, with Beaver at $1,068, Luzerne at $1,291, and Lackawanna at $1,313 versus Crawford's $896. Blair County is the closest comp at $166,151 median price and a 7.23% rent-to-price ratio, and it actually scores 74 overall versus Crawford's 72. An investor primarily motivated by current income should look seriously at Blair or Luzerne before settling on Crawford. Philadelphia County's 8.94% rent-to-price ratio is the strongest income metric in the peer set, though its $228,589 median price and big-city regulatory environment are a different risk profile entirely. Crawford's edge over all of these neighbors is its combination of low entry price and the highest year-over-year appreciation rate in the data provided at 7.04%. If you are buying for total return with a five-plus year hold and you can manage the carry, Crawford earns its place. If you need the property to pay for itself from month one, the neighbors offer better math.