Fayette County

Fayette County sits at the cash-flow end of the spectrum, and the numbers make that case clearly. At a median home price of $143,795 and median rent of $923, the rent-to-price ratio comes in at 7.7%, well above the threshold most investors use to screen for cash-flow viability. The cap rate at model assumptions lands at 5.01%, which is respectable for Pennsylvania. The cash-flow score of 77 out of 100 and an affordability index of 99 confirm that entry cost is not the barrier here. Appreciation, however, is a different story: home prices are down 1.6% year-over-year, and the appreciation score of 42 reflects a market that is not being bid up by equity growth. This is a yield market, not a price-growth market, and investors should walk in with that framing.

The model cash-on-cash return of -5.55% at 20% down deserves a careful look before writing this market off or leaning too hard into it. That figure reflects financing at 6.85%, a $754 monthly mortgage, and $323 in estimated expenses, producing a projected -$153 monthly cash flow at median rent on a median-priced asset. The math improves meaningfully for buyers who can push rents above the median, negotiate below the median price, or bring more equity to reduce the debt service. This is not a market for a leveraged buyer expecting the asset to carry itself on day one at these interest rates. It is, however, a real candidate for a cash or low-leverage buyer, a value-add operator acquiring below-median assets and repositioning rents, or an investor comfortable running slightly negative carry while waiting for rate relief. The stability score of 50 signals that this market has real fragility alongside its affordability, so anyone buying here should underwrite for resilience, not best-case occupancy.

The tax and insurance load deserves its own line on the underwrite. Pennsylvania's state-average effective property tax rate is 1.54%, which the data flags as high, and at the model purchase price that translates to $2,214 in annual property tax and $331 in annual insurance, or $212 per month combined. That $212 is embedded in the expense figure above, but investors should be explicit about it because it is the number most likely to be underestimated by buyers accustomed to lower-tax states. The data note is worth heeding: 1.54% is a state-average estimate from Tax Foundation 2024, and actual Fayette County or township-level rates may differ materially. Pull the county assessor data before finalizing your pro forma.

The comparison to neighboring counties sharpens Fayette's positioning. Lawrence County, the closest analog by price, carries a median home price of $152,781 and a rent-to-price ratio of 7.86%, just ahead of Fayette's 7.7%, with an overall score of 67 versus Fayette's 66. Lawrence is the one market in this peer set that is genuinely competitive with Fayette on cash-flow mechanics, and an investor should underwrite both before committing. Somerset County sits at a 6.24% rent-to-price ratio and a $169,583 median price, giving up significant yield for modestly higher price points. Dauphin and Berks counties are in a different tier entirely, with median prices of $270K and $300K respectively and rent-to-price ratios below 6%, making them appreciation or hybrid plays rather than cash-flow targets. Clinton County at 5.72% rent-to-price and a $190K median is similarly misaligned for a pure yield buyer. If your thesis is maximum rent yield at minimum entry price within Pennsylvania, Fayette and Lawrence are the two markets to stress-test against each other, and Fayette's lower median price gives it the edge in absolute dollar exposure per door.

The risk profile here centers on economic concentration and demographic trajectory. A population of 128,417 in a county with a stability score of 50 suggests a market without deep institutional demand buffers. Southwestern Pennsylvania's legacy industrial economy means rental demand can be sensitive to employment shifts in ways that metros with diversified employer bases are not. No economic anchor data was provided for this county, so no specific employer risk can be named, but the low appreciation score and negative price trend year-over-year are consistent with a market experiencing slow population or income pressure. An investor running a buy-and-hold here should assume that rent growth will be modest and that vacancy risk during tenant transitions needs to be priced conservatively. The affordability index of 99 is a two-edged data point: it means tenants can theoretically afford homeownership, which in a stronger market would be a threat to rental demand, but given the negative price trend, that conversion pressure appears limited for now.