Lackawanna County

Lackawanna County posts a gross rent-to-price ratio of 6.99%, which is meaningfully above the threshold where cash flow becomes plausible but not so high that the market looks distressed or illiquid. The cap rate at 4.54% is real, not generous, and reflects a market sitting near the middle of the cash-flow-versus-appreciation spectrum. Home prices grew 2.02% year-over-year, which is measured appreciation rather than the kind of run-up that erodes yield. The affordability index of 78 keeps the tenant pool wide, because a median home at $242,972 is still accessible enough that renters have not been universally priced into ownership. On the model underwrite, a 20% down payment at 6.85% produces a monthly mortgage of $1,274, and when estimated expenses of $495 are layered in against median rent of $1,414.86, the levered position runs a cash-flow deficit of $354 per month, a cash-on-cash return of negative 7.6%. The cap rate staying positive at 4.54% confirms the property generates income at the asset level; the negative cash-on-cash is a financing problem at current rates, not a fundamentals problem. Investors who require day-one levered cash flow will need to buy below list or bring more equity.

This market suits two buyer profiles. A value-add operator who can acquire below the median, force appreciation through renovation, and refinance into a better basis has a realistic path here. The cap rate gives them an income floor while they execute. A moderate-appreciation buyer also has a case, given 2.02% annual price growth and an affordability index that suggests the market is not yet exhausted. The pure cash-flow buyer chasing 8%+ cash-on-cash at market prices and standard leverage will not find it at $242,972 with a 6.85% rate, and the numbers are transparent about that. The overall score of 67 out of 100, placing Lackawanna at the 73rd national percentile across 1,000 counties and 21st among Pennsylvania's 67 counties, reflects a county that clears the bar without being a standout.

The carry costs deserve a close read before underwriting this market. Pennsylvania's state-average effective property tax rate is 1.54%, and Lackawanna's model figures use that estimate, producing $3,742 in annual property taxes. Combined with $559 in annual insurance, the monthly tax-and-insurance burden is $358, which is the single largest line item outside of the mortgage itself. At 1.54%, this rate is high enough to deserve its own line on your underwrite, and the honest caveat is that actual county and township rates may differ from this state-average estimate. It is worth pulling the specific millage for any parcel you are serious about, because variation at the local level can move your carrying cost materially in either direction.

The stability score of 50 is the number that deserves the most scrutiny. It is the lowest of Lackawanna's five scored dimensions and signals meaningful uncertainty around demand consistency or economic resilience. Lackawanna's population of 215,672 makes it a mid-size Pennsylvania county, large enough to have rental market depth but worth examining for demographic trends. The county's 70 scores in both cash flow and appreciation mean neither pillar is weak, but the stability score suggests the floor is less certain than the ceiling. Investors should underwrite to conservative vacancy assumptions and not count on consistent rent growth in a market that the data itself flags as less predictable.

Comparing Lackawanna to its neighbor set clarifies where it earns its place. Lawrence County and Fayette County both have higher rent-to-price ratios, at 7.86% and 8.01% respectively, and dramatically lower price points, $152,781 and $140,767, which will appeal to buyers prioritizing yield and lower capital deployment. Fayette County's overall score of 68 actually edges Lackawanna by one point. Somerset County's rent-to-price ratio of 6.24% is weaker than Lackawanna's 6.99%, and its median rent of $882 is nearly $533 below Lackawanna's, indicating a thinner rental market in absolute terms. Erie County and Dauphin County both carry higher overall scores (68 and 66 respectively) but lower rent-to-price ratios (5.93% and 5.97%), meaning more of the return thesis depends on price appreciation rather than yield. The case for choosing Lackawanna over these neighbors is straightforward: it offers a better rent-to-price ratio than Erie or Dauphin while still sitting at a price point that attracts a quality tenant pool, and it pairs that yield with the urban depth of Scranton's rental market that smaller southwestern Pennsylvania counties cannot match. If the primary goal is maximum yield and minimum entry cost, Lawrence or Fayette beats it. If the goal is a blend of yield, market size, and moderate appreciation in a mid-market Pennsylvania city, Lackawanna earns the allocation.