Montgomery County

Montgomery County sits at a 3.36% cap rate with a gross rent-to-price ratio of 0.516%, or about 5.16% annualized. At a $318,644 median purchase price and $1,371 monthly rent, the math is unambiguous: this is not a cash-flow market at current financing costs. Running a conventional investment loan at 6.85%, the modeled monthly mortgage lands at $1,670 against rent of $1,371, producing negative cash flow of $779 per month before vacancy or capital expenditure. Cash-on-cash return comes out at negative 12.76% on a $63,729 down payment. The affordability index of 62 is a relative bright spot, and year-over-year home price growth of 0.37% signals a market that has decelerated sharply rather than one appreciating its way out of cash-flow problems.

The investor this market suits is neither a cash-flow buyer nor a pure appreciation speculator at current prices and rates. The cash flow score of 47 and appreciation score of 54 place Montgomery in a frustrating middle ground, mediocre at both ends of the spectrum. A value-add operator might find an angle here if they can acquire meaningfully below the $318,644 median, since the rent base at $1,371 is real and renter demand tied to the local economy appears durable (discussed below). Anyone underwriting at par, however, needs to accept that they are betting on rent growth or rate compression to rescue the carry, because the day-one numbers do not pencil at 6.85%.

Montgomery County is home to Fort Campbell, one of the largest Army installations in the country and the primary employer anchor in the region. Military installations generate a specific rental demand profile: steady tenant turnover as service members rotate through, consistent household formation from junior enlisted and NCO families who rent rather than buy, and a BAH-supported rent ceiling that tends to keep the local rental market liquid even through broader economic slowdowns. That demand is real and worth underwriting against. The flip side is concentration: if you are buying in Clarksville, your rental market is heavily dependent on a single federal institution, and any meaningful drawdown in troop levels would hit both occupancy and rent simultaneously.

On the carry cost side, the combined monthly tax and insurance burden runs $284, composed of $189 estimated property tax and $96 estimated insurance, using a 0.71% effective tax rate and 0.36% insurance rate. Those are state-average figures (Tax Foundation 2024), and actual county or township rates will differ, so verify the county assessor data before finalizing your model. The 0.71% rate carries a "normal" flag, meaning it is neither a meaningful tailwind nor a drag relative to national peers. At $284 per month it is already embedded in the $480 estimated expense line the model projects, but it is worth confirming that your specific property's assessed value is not running above the county median, since reassessments in faster-appreciating submarkets can push the effective rate higher on newer acquisitions.

The concentration risk around Fort Campbell is the most important underwriting variable this data supports. A market of 222,305 people anchored to a single military installation faces binary demand risk that a diversified metro does not. There is no vacancy data provided here, but the structure of the economy suggests investors should model a stress scenario that assumes a 15-20% troop reduction and stress-test whether rent covers the mortgage at a lower occupancy assumption. Regulatory risk and demographic risk are not quantified in the available data, so no claims are made there.

Against its neighbors, Montgomery's overall score of 52 ties Sequatchie (52) and Blount (52) and trails Meigs (53) and Grundy (54) slightly, while edging Robertson (51). The more useful comparison is rent-to-price. Blount County shows a rent-to-price ratio of 5.41% at a $380,434 median, modestly better yield but significantly higher entry cost. Robertson County posts the best rent-to-price in the peer group at 5.53% against a $366,187 median, meaning Robertson likely produces a better day-one cash-flow setup than Montgomery even at a higher price point. Grundy County at a $200,790 median is the lowest-cost entry in the group, which matters if capital efficiency is the priority, though no rent data was provided to confirm whether the yield justifies it. Choose Montgomery over its neighbors when the Fort Campbell demand thesis is central to your strategy and you can source acquisition prices below the median, where the rent-to-price math begins to improve. Choose Robertson if you want a better yield spread with comparable overall scores and no single-employer concentration.