Sullivan County

Sullivan County sits at a 6.14% rent-to-price ratio, which lands it squarely in the middle of the cash-flow spectrum, better than pure appreciation markets but not quite at the threshold where a standard leveraged purchase pencils out. At the modeled purchase price of $257,715 with 20% down and a 6.85% rate, the numbers are unfriendly: a $1,351 monthly mortgage against $1,319 in median rent produces negative cash flow before you've paid a dollar in expenses. The model estimates negative $494 per month in cash flow and a cash-on-cash return of -10%. The cap rate of 3.99% tells the cleaner story, because it strips out financing and still comes in below the borrowing rate, meaning leverage works against you here at current interest rates. Home prices are also down 0.53% year-over-year, so there is no near-term appreciation tailwind to offset the carry cost. This is a market where the math requires either a meaningfully below-asking purchase, a higher-rent submarket within the county, or a patient hold thesis that is hard to defend with the current numbers.

The investor profile this market does not suit is the leveraged buy-and-hold buyer running a standard 20%-down scenario at prevailing rates. The cash-flow score of 61 out of 100 suggests the market has moderate cash-flow potential relative to peers, but that potential requires execution the base-case numbers don't capture: a value-add operator buying distressed at a discount to the $257,715 median, forcing equity through renovation, and stabilizing at or above median rent would have a defensible path. A cash buyer is a more obvious fit, since removing the $1,351 mortgage payment transforms the math entirely. With a 3.99% cap rate, a cash buyer earns roughly that on stabilized value, which is modest but positive and avoids the negative leverage trap. An appreciation buyer gets the worst of both worlds here: the appreciation score is 47 out of 100, prices are slightly negative year-over-year, and the affordability index of 75 suggests the market isn't so cheap that a compression-driven price surge is likely near-term.

Combined monthly property tax and insurance on the median-priced asset runs approximately $230, already baked into the $462 estimated expense figure. The state-average effective property tax rate is 0.71%, flagged as normal, and at that level it is not a particular headwind or tailwind compared to national norms. Keep in mind this is a state-average estimate; your actual bill will depend on Sullivan County and township-level assessments, which can deviate materially. Insurance at 0.36% annually adds $928 per year on the median asset. Neither figure is alarming on its own, but together they form a meaningful base cost that reinforces why the gross rent-to-price ratio needs to clear roughly 0.9% to 1.0% per month to produce positive leveraged cash flow, and the current median rent of $1,319 against a $257,715 price comes in at 0.51%, well short of that threshold.

The data does not include economic anchor or employer information for Sullivan County, so job-base analysis is not addressed here. What the demographic and stability numbers do show is a population of 158,722 and an overall stability score of 50 out of 100, suggesting a market with average volatility relative to national peers, neither a boom town nor a distressed shrinking market. The national percentile rank of 46 out of 100 and a state rank of 35 out of 95 Tennessee counties place Sullivan in the lower half of both its state and national peer set, which is consistent with a market that clears the bar for investment consideration but does not stand out on any single metric.

Compared to the neighboring counties in the data, Sullivan is mid-pack on price but not the best risk-adjusted option for a cash-flow buyer. Madison County, TN carries an overall score of 60 versus Sullivan's 58, a rent-to-price ratio of 7.48% versus Sullivan's 6.14%, and a median price of $222,286, meaning you get better yield metrics at a lower entry price. For a buyer prioritizing cash flow, Madison is the cleaner choice. Haywood County also posts a 7.27% rent-to-price ratio at a median price of $167,218, which is the kind of entry point where leveraged cash flow becomes achievable if rents are supportable. Fayette County at $366,798 and a 6.35% ratio is a more expensive market with marginally better yield than Sullivan but still below Madison's ratio. Sullivan's defensible advantage over neighbors is its larger population base at 158,722, which supports more liquidity and more consistent rental demand depth than a smaller county like Fentress. If your strategy is scale, finding deals in a deeper inventory pool, Sullivan's size is a real operational consideration. If your strategy is maximizing yield on a single asset, the numbers in Madison or Haywood are more compelling.