Dawson County

Dawson County sits at a median home price of $111,724 with year-over-year appreciation of 5.75%, which is the headline number that defines what this market actually is. The affordability index hits 100, the highest possible reading, and the county ranks 7th nationally out of 1,000 counties and 5th in Texas out of 243. That combination, sub-$112K entry price plus meaningful appreciation, is rare. The appreciation score of 88 reflects a market that is moving, not stagnant. The cash-flow score of 0 tells you the other side of the ledger: cap rate, estimated cash flow, and cash-on-cash return are all zeroed out in the data, meaning this county does not generate a clear positive spread after financing at today's 6.85% rate. The investment profile is appreciation-first, with affordability as the structural support underneath it.

This market suits two buyer types and largely excludes a third. An appreciation buyer gets a $111,724 entry point into a county gaining nearly 6% per year on price, with a perfect affordability score suggesting there is still room to run before price resistance hits the local buyer pool. A value-add operator can work here because the absolute dollar amounts are small: a 20% down payment is $22,345, which lowers the capital-at-risk on a repositioning play. What this market does not suit is a pure cash-flow buyer looking for a spread above the mortgage at a 6.85% rate. With the cash-flow score at 0 and no cap rate data available to work with, there is no evidence in this dataset that the rents are clearing carrying costs cleanly. If your model requires day-one positive cash flow on a conventional loan, this data does not support that case.

No economic anchors or employer data were provided for Dawson County, so the demand-side rental story cannot be built from named institutional drivers here. What the population figure of 12,342 does tell you is that this is a small, likely rural West Texas county. Small-county markets can produce outsized price appreciation relative to their economic footprint, but they can also mean a thinner tenant pool and limited comparables for appraisals. The 5.75% YoY price gain in a market this size is notable and worth understanding the cause of before you deploy capital, whether that is agricultural land values lifting residential prices, energy sector proximity, or simple mean-reversion from a low base.

Property taxes in Texas are consistently a material line item, and Dawson County is no exception. At the state-average effective rate of 1.80%, which the Tax Foundation classifies as high, the annual property tax on a $111,724 asset runs approximately $2,011, and when combined with estimated annual insurance of $559, the monthly tax-and-insurance carry is $214. On a sub-$112K property, $214 per month in tax and insurance before you touch principal, interest, maintenance, or vacancy is a real number. If gross rents are in the $800 to $1,000 range for this price tier, that $214 is already 21 to 27% of gross income consumed before debt service. Give this its own line in your underwrite. The 1.80% figure is a state average; county and township assessments in Texas frequently diverge from that, sometimes materially, so confirm the specific Dawson County rate before closing.

The concentrated risk here is size. A population of 12,342 means limited market liquidity, a small tenant base, and exit options that depend heavily on the local buyer pool or out-of-market investors finding the same thesis you did. There is no diversification across industry sectors if the local economy is tied to one or two drivers, and if those drivers contract, both rental demand and resale values can move together in the wrong direction. Regulatory risk is not flagged by any provided data, but small West Texas counties generally do not carry heavy landlord-side regulatory burden, which is a structural positive if you are operating a rental.

The neighbor comparison sharpens the decision. Stonewall County at $91,350 and an overall score of 82 is actually the highest-scoring neighbor and the cheapest entry point, which makes it the closest competitor to Dawson if you are optimizing purely on affordability and score. Andrews County ($244,485, score 75) and Callahan County ($220,841, score 75) both score lower than Dawson at more than double the price, which means they are not competitive on a risk-adjusted basis for this investment style. Cottle County at $65,066 and a score of 68 is cheaper but scores meaningfully lower. Wichita County is the only neighbor with rent data: a median rent of $1,182.85 on a $163,787 median price produces a rent-to-price ratio of 0.87%, which is actually below Wichita's own score of 68. Dawson's score of 80 at a much lower price point suggests the market is relatively more attractive on a composite basis than any of the higher-priced neighbors. Choose Dawson over its neighbors when your priority is appreciation upside at minimum capital outlay; choose Stonewall if you want to go even cheaper with a marginally higher overall score; and avoid Andrews and Callahan if the goal is anything other than a purely appreciation-driven hold at scale.