Guadalupe County

Guadalupe County posts a gross rent-to-price ratio of 0.0678, which translates to a 4.41% cap rate on a median-priced asset at $293,039. That cap rate sits comfortably in the cash-flow-leaning half of the Texas spectrum, but the levered picture is a different story. At 6.85% financing on an 80% LTV purchase, the modeled monthly mortgage is $1,536, estimated operating expenses add another $580, and median rent of $1,657 leaves you $460 in the hole each month, a cash-on-cash return of negative 8.19%. Prices slipped 1.81% year-over-year, so there is no near-term appreciation tailwind to rationalize that carry. The affordability index of 67 suggests the county is not deeply cheap, though it is not top-quartile expensive either. On the national composite, Guadalupe ranks 451st out of 1,000 counties, landing in the 42nd percentile, a solidly middle-of-the-road market that neither screams value nor commands a premium.

The cash-flow score of 68 looks decent in isolation, but the actual modeled cash flow being negative clarifies what that score reflects: relatively favorable rent-to-price physics compared to many Texas metros, not a turnkey positive-return product at current rates. This market is not well-suited to a passive cash-flow buyer running conventional financing at today's rates unless they bring a larger down payment to reduce debt service or buy below the median. An appreciation buyer should note the negative YoY price movement and an appreciation score of 41, which is below the midpoint, so that thesis is hard to build here without a specific neighborhood catalyst. The investor this market realistically suits is a value-add operator who can acquire at a discount to the $293,039 median, force equity through renovation, and refinance or sell into a recovered basis, or a buyer with substantial equity who can get the levered math to work by reducing the mortgage load materially.

The taxInsurance data deserves serious attention in any underwrite. The state-average effective property tax rate of 1.80% is flagged high, and it is. On a $293,039 purchase that produces $5,275 in annual property tax alone. Combined with $1,465 in annual insurance, the monthly tax and insurance burden runs $562, which is nearly 34% of gross rent on a median-priced property. That figure is not a rounding error; it is a structural cost that compresses net operating income before you account for vacancy, maintenance, or management. Keep in mind this is a state-average estimate per Tax Foundation 2024 data, and actual Guadalupe County or township rates may differ, so pull the county assessor's current levy before closing. Texas has no state income tax, which is the offset investors often cite, but that benefit flows to residents and does not show up on a rental property's income statement.

Guadalupe's stability score of 50 is exactly median, signaling neither a boom-and-bust cyclical market nor a recession-resistant one. The population of 173,828 puts this in small-to-mid county territory. Without significant concentration in a single employer or industry sector evident in the data, the rental demand base appears broadly distributed, which limits upside volatility but also limits the kind of institutional anchor that drives occupancy floors in downturns.

Comparing Guadalupe to its neighbors surfaces an important point about what you are paying for. Victoria County prices at $211,088 with a rent-to-price ratio of 0.0639 and an overall score of 58, one point higher than Guadalupe's 57. Hamilton and Robertson counties price in the low $260,000s with comparable overall scores of 56 to 58. Hutchinson County at $114,329 and Duval County at $75,098 are dramatically cheaper in absolute terms, both with scores near 55 to 58. Guadalupe is the most expensive county in this peer set by a meaningful margin and does not produce a higher overall investment score to justify that premium. An investor whose thesis centers purely on acquiring the most favorable rent-to-price ratio should look at Victoria County first, where the entry price is $82,000 lower and the score marginally edges Guadalupe. If you have a specific reason to want Guadalupe, such as proximity to the San Antonio metro employment base, population density advantages, or a specific submarket opportunity, that reason needs to be explicit in your underwrite, because the raw numbers do not make an automatic case for paying up here over the neighbors.