Hutchinson County

Hutchinson County comes in at a gross rent-to-price ratio of 8.7%, which puts it squarely in cash-flow territory rather than appreciation territory. The median home price is $125,678 against a median rent of $912.50, so the raw yield looks attractive on paper. The model cap rate is 5.67%, which is workable for a leveraged buy-and-hold in a low-cost market. Where the numbers get more complicated is at the cash-on-cash level: at a 6.85% financing rate with 20% down, the model spits out a negative $65 monthly cash flow and a cash-on-cash return of -2.7%. That gap between a decent cap rate and a negative levered return is entirely a function of today's interest rate environment compressing the spread. Price appreciation is modest, at 1.65% year-over-year, so you are not being rescued on the back end by equity growth. The affordability index sits at 100, a perfect score, which confirms this is one of the cheapest entry points you will find anywhere, and the county ranks 53rd nationally out of 1,000 counties scored, landing in the 93rd percentile overall, with an 11th-place finish among 243 Texas counties.

The cash-flow score of 87 out of 100 tells you this market is built for the income-oriented buyer, but the investment estimate shows the current rate environment is eating that income. A cash buyer or a buyer who can source financing below the modeled 6.85% changes the picture meaningfully: at the $125,678 price point, every 50 basis points of rate reduction is worth roughly $35 per month in freed-up cash flow, and a cash purchase eliminates the $659 mortgage entirely, leaving gross rent against operating expenses only. Value-add operators also have a clear path here: with a $125,678 median price and an affordability score of 100, basis risk is low, and any renovation that pushes rents above the $912.50 median does so against a small denominator. The appreciation score of 66 and 1.65% annual price growth tell the pure equity-growth buyer to look elsewhere. Stability scores at 50, which is the number to watch for anyone concerned about tenant turnover or economic disruption in a small market.

The population of 20,595 is the first thing that should prompt due diligence on economic concentration. A market this size lives and dies by a handful of employers or industries. No economic anchor data was provided for Hutchinson County, so no employer-specific claims can be made here, but any investor underwriting this market needs to independently verify what is driving rental demand in Borger, the county seat, before committing capital. A county with a stability score of 50 in this population range warrants that work.

The tax and insurance carry cost deserves its own line on your underwrite. The combined monthly tax and insurance figure is $241, which represents 26% of the $912.50 median rent before you touch the mortgage, maintenance, vacancy, or management. The underlying property tax rate used is 1.8%, flagged as high. At that rate, the state-average effective rate is high enough to be a real underwriting consideration, and the note from Tax Foundation 2024 is explicit that actual county and township rates may differ from the state average, so pulling the Hutchinson County assessor data before closing is not optional. Texas has no state income tax, which is a partial offset, but it does not offset a high property tax rate dollar for dollar for a rental investor whose tenants do not care about the owner's income tax situation.

The concentration risk here is the dominant concern. A population of 20,595 with a stability score of 50 in a Texas panhandle county historically tied to energy and petrochemical activity means your occupancy is correlated to commodity cycles. If the local employment base contracts, rents do not hold at $912.50 and vacancy rises simultaneously, and you have limited rental demand depth to absorb that. The data does not provide vacancy figures, so no specific rate can be cited, but the small population combined with the mid-range stability score is itself the signal.

Against its neighbors, Hutchinson is the clearest cash-flow play in the peer set. Wichita County has a nearly identical rent-to-price ratio of 8.67% against Hutchinson's 8.71%, but Wichita's median price is $163,787 versus $125,678 here, meaning you deploy 30% more capital for a similar yield profile and an overall score of 68 versus 75. Andrews and Callahan counties both score 75 overall but carry median prices of $244,485 and $220,841 respectively, roughly double Hutchinson's entry point with no offsetting data on superior rent multiples. Stonewall County scores higher at 82 and has a lower median price of $91,350, which makes it worth examining if you are optimizing on entry price, though its population base will be even smaller and concentration risk proportionally higher. Cottle County at $65,066 and a score of 68 is cheaper still but scores below Hutchinson on every composite measure. The case for Hutchinson over its neighbors is straightforward: lowest entry price among the 75-point scorers in this peer group, with a cash-flow score of 87 that none of the neighbors can match on available data. Choose it when you are a cash buyer or a low-leverage operator targeting immediate income and can accept a small, energy-adjacent market with real concentration risk baked in.