Carbon County

Carbon County, Wyoming sits at a median home price of $216,232 and a median rent of $1,024.60, producing a gross rent-to-price ratio of 5.69%. That ratio is thin enough to explain why the modeled cap rate lands at 3.69% and the cash-on-cash return at negative 11.29% under a 20% down conventional loan at 6.85%. Monthly mortgage on that purchase comes to $1,134, expenses run an additional $359, and gross rent covers neither, leaving a modeled cash flow deficit of $468 per month. The cash flow score of 55 and the appreciation score of 72 tell you where this market sits on the spectrum: it skews toward appreciation rather than current income. Year-over-year home price growth of 2.22% is modest in absolute terms, but against a median price of $216,232, the county still ranks in the 65th percentile nationally and 8th out of 23 Wyoming counties overall, suggesting it holds relative competitive position without having already priced out entry-level buyers. Affordability lands at 84, reinforcing that prices here remain accessible by broader benchmarks.

The negative cash-on-cash figure is the defining constraint for anyone underwriting a standard leveraged acquisition. This is not a cash-flow market at current financing rates. A buyer expecting to generate positive monthly income from day one will be disappointed by the math, even before accounting for vacancy or capital expenditure reserves. The appreciation buyer has a more interesting argument: entry at $216,232 is the lowest price point among the neighboring counties included here, and 2.22% annual appreciation on a low basis compounds more meaningfully than the same percentage on a $318,000 or $405,000 asset. A value-add operator who can push rents above the $1,024 median through unit improvements or repositioning has the most plausible path to making the numbers work. At 6.85% debt, the margin for error is narrow, so any value-add thesis needs to pencil on conservative rent assumptions, not optimistic ones.

The tax and insurance carry cost at $153 per month combined is actually a tailwind for Carbon County relative to most of the country. The state-average effective property tax rate is 0.61%, flagged as low, meaning the annual tax bill on this asset comes to approximately $1,319. That rate provides real relief on the expense line, though the honest caveat applies: this is a state-average estimate from Tax Foundation 2024 data, and the actual county or township levy may differ materially, so any underwrite should confirm the specific parcel rate before closing. Insurance runs an additional $519 annually, or $43 per month, which is modest and reflects Wyoming's relatively limited catastrophic exposure compared to coastal or tornado-alley markets. Together, these carry costs are not the problem in this market; the mortgage-to-rent gap is.

Carbon County is a small market with a population of 14,609. That scale creates concentration risk that a larger metro does not carry. A single large employer reducing headcount, a demographic shift toward an older population, or a meaningful economic disruption has an outsized effect on rental demand in a pool this shallow. No economic anchor data was provided for this county, so it would be irresponsible to speculate on employer mix or job base stability. An investor serious about this market needs to do their own diligence on who is actually writing paychecks locally, what industries they represent, and whether that demand base supports the rent levels the model assumes.

Against its Wyoming neighbors, Carbon County is the most affordable entry point in the comparison set by a meaningful margin. Platte County sits at $265,654, Goshen at $243,785, Converse at $318,555, Washakie at $261,804, and Crook County at $405,496, with overall scores of 66, 61, 61, 67, and 60 respectively. Carbon's overall score of 64 is competitive with that group despite its lower price point, which suggests it is not cheap because it is fundamentally weaker; it may simply be less discovered or have a thinner demand profile given its population size. Washakie County scores marginally higher at 67 with a $261,804 median, so a buyer prioritizing score efficiency over absolute price might look there first. But a buyer who wants the lowest basis, the best affordability conditions, and the lowest carry cost among Wyoming peers should look at Carbon. Choose Carbon over its neighbors when capital preservation and low acquisition cost matter more than score ranking, or when a value-add thesis needs room below market to execute without overpaying for the underlying asset.