Lawrence market analysis
Lawrence County, Alabama sits at a median home price of $225,531 with year-over-year appreciation of just 1.2%, placing it firmly on the flat end of the price-growth spectrum. The data does not include a median rent figure or cap rate for this county, which means the cash-flow score registered at zero and the investment estimate fields for monthly cash flow and cap-on-cash return are unpopulated. That is a material gap, not a quirk. What the affordability index of 82 and the price point together suggest is a market priced well below national medians, where an investor who can independently verify local rents may find room to work, but the tool cannot confirm that for Lawrence based on available data. The county ranks 273rd out of 1,000 nationally, landing at the 65th percentile, and sits 16th out of 67 Alabama counties. Its appreciation score of 62 is modest but not negligible, its stability score is 50, and its overall score lands at 64.
With cash-flow numbers absent, the investor profile that makes sense here is narrowed considerably. The appreciation score of 62 and a 1.2% annual price gain do not make a compelling case for a pure appreciation play either. The honest read is that Lawrence fits best as a speculative value-add or buy-and-hold position for an investor who already has rent comparables from the ground, not one relying solely on modeled data. The affordability index of 82, the lowest price tier among the neighbors listed, and an interest rate environment of 6.85% mean that a 20% down payment of roughly $45,100 puts a buyer in at a relatively accessible entry point for Alabama. Whether that entry price yields positive cash flow depends entirely on what rents the specific submarket will bear, and that number is not in the dataset.
Lawrence County has a population of 33,116, which puts it in the small-county tier where economic concentration risk is real. No economic anchor data was provided for this county, so employer-specific demand drivers cannot be assessed. What population size alone tells a buy-and-hold investor is that vacancy can move sharply on a single employer departure or regional economic shift. In a market this size, absorption of new units or vacant stock is slow, and tenant pools are thinner than in metro-adjacent counties.
The tax and insurance picture is a genuine tailwind. Alabama's state-average effective property tax rate is 0.40%, flagged as very low, and that translates to roughly $902 annually on a $225,531 purchase. Combined with an insurance estimate of $947 per year, the blended monthly tax-and-insurance carry is approximately $154. For a market where cash flow margins may already be thin, a $154 monthly T&I load is notably lighter than what an investor would face in a high-tax state. That said, the 0.40% figure is a state-average estimate from Tax Foundation 2024 data, and actual county and township rates in Lawrence can differ from that figure, so confirm the local millage before closing.
The primary risks here are scale-related. A county of 33,000 people with a stability score of 50 and no identified economic anchors is meaningfully exposed to demand concentration. If the local employment base is thin or tied to a single sector, a rental investor holding multiple units faces outsized vacancy risk during downturns. Regulatory risk is not flagged by the dataset, but landlord-tenant law in Alabama is generally considered investor-friendly at the state level. Demographic trends are also not provided, so growth or contraction in the renter-age cohort cannot be assessed from the data.
Compared to its neighbors, Lawrence is not the obvious first choice for most investor profiles. Jefferson County prices in at $208,520 with a rent-to-price ratio of 0.0743, Mobile County at $191,438 with a ratio of 0.0789, and Saint Clair County at $265,188 with a ratio of 0.0758. All three provide rent data that Lawrence currently lacks, meaning an investor can actually underwrite those markets with the available figures. Mobile in particular, with its lower price point and a 0.0789 gross rent multiplier, looks more favorable on a cash-flow screen than Lawrence does on the current data. Cherokee County and De Kalb County are missing rent figures as well, so they share Lawrence's underwriting limitation. The case for choosing Lawrence over its neighbors would rest on one of three things: a verified local rent figure that produces favorable cash flow, a specific value-add opportunity at a price point below the $225,531 median, or a strategic reason to be in that specific geography, such as proximity to a known employer or infrastructure project, that the dataset does not currently capture.
Price History
Median Home Price
Median Rent
Historical data from Zillow ZHVI/ZORI
Score Breakdown
Rent data not available for cash flow calculation.
Based on 1.2% YoY price growth. Moderate growth (3-8%) scores highest.
Population data not available.
Based on price relative to estimated local incomes.
Scores are calculated using real Zillow home value and rent data, Census population data, and economic indicators. The weighted average produces the overall investment score. Markets with missing rent data use estimated values based on regional averages.
Investment Outlook
Strengths
- +Affordable relative to local incomes
Challenges
- -Negative leverage (cap rate 0.0% < mortgage rate 6.9%)
- -Limited rent data (estimates used)
Economic Indicators
Who this market fits
- −You can't tolerate negative leverage (cap rate below mortgage rate today)
Compare to Nearby Counties
Section 8 in Lawrence County: payment standards by ZIP, PHA waitlist status, and voucher counts are on VoucherMatch, the same HUD dataset with the tenant demand side attached.
The Bottom Line
Lawrence County in Alabama scores 64/100, ranking #273 of 1,000 US counties (top 35%). At 20% down and current rates, a median-priced rental roughly breaks even on cash flow. The deal works on appreciation or with better terms, not on month-one cash flow.