Mariposa market analysis
Mariposa County scores a cash-flow rating of zero, which is not a rounding artifact, it is the data telling you something clear. The investment estimate fields for cap rate, monthly mortgage, and cash-on-cash return are all empty, meaning the model cannot construct a positive cash-flow scenario at a $400,344 median purchase price with a 6.85% rate. The county sits at the 15th national percentile overall and ranks 19th out of 58 California counties, putting it in the bottom third nationally but solidly mid-tier for a state where cash flow is structurally difficult almost everywhere. Home prices declined 1.1% year-over-year, so you are not even getting appreciation momentum to compensate. An affordability index of 44 and an appreciation score of 44 tell the same story: this is not a cheap market relative to incomes, and price growth has been flat to negative. The price-to-rent relationship cannot be fully calculated from the provided data, but given the zero cash-flow score and the absence of any rent figure in the dataset, investors should treat Mariposa as a market where returns, if they exist at all, would come from factors other than monthly income.
That framing points toward who can actually use this market. A cash-flow buyer should skip it, full stop. The score is zero and no amount of creative financing changes the underlying price-to-income tension in a county of 17,130 people with a $400,000 median. A pure appreciation play is theoretically possible, but a 1.1% price decline over the past year and a 44 appreciation score do not make that case compelling. The investor best positioned here is someone with a specific use-case thesis, such as short-term rental exposure tied to Yosemite National Park proximity, though the data provided does not include short-term rental income figures, so that angle cannot be quantified here. A value-add operator buying below median in a distressed asset might find room, but the small population base (17,130 residents) creates a thin buyer pool on exit and limited rental demand from a purely residential tenant base.
No economicAnchors data was provided for Mariposa County, so the employer and job-stability picture cannot be addressed here. What the population figure does signal is concentration risk: at 17,130 residents, this is one of the smallest counties in California by headcount. A single employer contraction, a wildfire season that displaces residents, or a sustained period of tourism softness could move the local rental market in ways that would be invisible in a larger metro but material here.
On carry costs, the combined monthly tax and insurance figure comes to $300, based on a state-average effective property tax rate of 0.73% applied to the $400,344 purchase price, producing $2,923 in annual taxes, plus $681 in annual insurance at a 0.17% rate. The 0.73% rate carries a "normal" flag, meaning it is not a structural headwind the way California's higher-assessed-value counties can become, but the Tax Foundation figure is a state-average estimate and actual Mariposa County or township rates may differ, so underwrite with local assessor data before closing. At $300 per month, taxes and insurance alone represent a significant fixed cost in a market where the rental income side of the equation is unquantified in this dataset.
The concentration and liquidity risk deserve emphasis. A county with 17,130 people has a thin transaction market. Days on market, buyer competition, and financing availability all tighten in rural California counties, particularly those without a major employment center. Regulatory risk is also a California-wide consideration: the state's landlord-tenant framework is among the more tenant-protective in the country, and while that applies statewide, rural counties with high seasonal or tourism-adjacent rental stock can face additional complexity around short-term rental permitting at the local level. The data does not provide vacancy or regulatory specifics, so no further claims are made on those points.
Compared to its neighbors, Mariposa is the most difficult case in its peer group. Merced County offers a rent-to-price ratio of 5.74% at a $412,344 median price with $1,973 median rent and an overall score of 46. Stanislaus County comes in at 5.42% on rent-to-price at $458,196 median and scores 47 overall. Yuba County shows a 5.35% rent-to-price ratio at $410,114. All three of those counties have actual rent data, functional cap rate potential, and larger population bases that support more liquid exit markets. Mono County, adjacent to Mariposa, has a $725,000 median and a 44 overall score with no rent figure provided, making it a different risk profile altogether. Choose Mariposa over a neighbor only if you have a property-specific thesis that the data here cannot support generically, such as a Yosemite-adjacent asset with a documented short-term rental income history. For conventional buy-and-hold residential rentals, Merced or Stanislaus offer more workable rent-to-price math and larger tenant pools.
Price History
Median Home Price
Median Rent
Historical data from Zillow ZHVI/ZORI
Score Breakdown
Rent data not available for cash flow calculation.
Based on -1.1% YoY price growth. Moderate growth (3-8%) scores highest.
Population data not available.
Based on price relative to estimated local incomes.
Scores are calculated using real Zillow home value and rent data, Census population data, and economic indicators. The weighted average produces the overall investment score. Markets with missing rent data use estimated values based on regional averages.
Investment Outlook
Strengths
No significant strengths identified based on current data.
Challenges
- -Declining home values (-1.1% YoY)
- -Negative leverage (cap rate 0.0% < mortgage rate 6.9%)
- -Limited rent data (estimates used)
Economic Indicators
Who this market fits
- −You can't tolerate negative leverage (cap rate below mortgage rate today)
- −You expect appreciation to carry the deal, but prices have declined year over year
Compare to Nearby Counties
The Bottom Line
Mariposa County in California scores 46/100, ranking #667 of 1,000 US counties (top 85%). At 20% down and current rates, a median-priced rental roughly breaks even on cash flow. The deal works on appreciation or with better terms, not on month-one cash flow.