San Francisco County

CaliforniaPopulation: 851,036
40
/100
Avoid
#751 of 1,000 counties
#32 in California (58 counties)
Analysis by RentalCalcs ResearchIndependent data + algorithm-driven scoring
Updated August 31, 2026Sources: Zillow ZHVI, Zillow ZORI, US Census ACS, Tax Foundation

Market Snapshot

$1,416,641
Median Home Price
518% above national median
$4,539/mo
Median Rent
213% above national median
3.84%
Rent-to-Price Ratio
Top 96% nationally
-$4,476
Est. Monthly Cash Flow
With 20% down at 6.9% rate

Deep-dive analysis

Rent vs Buy
Break-even math + market-specific verdict for buying vs renting
Investment Analysis
Investor thesis, where to buy by profile, forward catalysts
Cap Rates
Gross + net yield by sub-market, compression outlook
Rental Prices
Rent trends, affordability, forecast for renters and landlords
House Hack
Duplex / ADU / fourplex strategies with real numbers

Scenario comparison

Same $4,539/mo rent assumption, 20% down, 6.85% rate. What changes is the acquisition price.
ScenarioPurchase priceMonthly cash flowCap rateCash-on-cash
75% of median
value-add or distressed
$1,062,481-$2,620/mo3.3%-12.9%
Median
typical MLS deal
$1,416,641-$4,476/mo2.5%-16.5%
125% of median
newer / premium
$1,770,801-$6,333/mo2.0%-18.7%

Price History

Median Home Price

Median Rent

Historical data from Zillow ZHVI/ZORI

Quick Investment Calculator

20%
5%50%100%

Purchase

Purchase Price$1,416,641
Down Payment (20%)$283,328
Loan Amount$1,133,313
Interest Rate6.85%

Monthly Cash Flow

Gross Rent+$4,539
Monthly P&I-$7,426
Est. Expenses (35%)-$1,589
Net Cash Flow-$4,476/mo
2.5%
Cap Rate (all cash)
-16.5%
Cash-on-Cash Return
3.84%
Rent-to-Price Ratio
Negative leverage: At 6.85% rates, borrowing costs exceed the 2.5% cap rate. All-cash buyers may see better returns.

* Based on county median values. 35% expenses include taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, and property management. Actual results vary by property.

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Score Breakdown

Overall Investment Score
40/100
40
Cash Flow(30%)
28/100

Based on 3.84% rent-to-price ratio. Higher ratios indicate stronger cash flow potential.

Appreciation(25%)
76/100

Based on 11.6% YoY price growth. Moderate growth (3-8%) scores highest.

Stability(25%)
50/100

Population data not available.

Affordability(20%)
0/100

Based on price relative to estimated local incomes.

Scores are calculated using real Zillow home value and rent data, Census population data, and economic indicators. The weighted average produces the overall investment score. Markets with missing rent data use estimated values based on regional averages.

Investment Outlook

Strengths

  • +Strong price appreciation (+11.6% YoY)
  • +Complete rent data available

Challenges

  • -Below-average rent-to-price ratio (3.84%)
  • -Negative cash flow at typical financing (-$4,476/mo)
  • -Negative leverage (cap rate 2.5% < mortgage rate 6.9%)
  • -High price-to-income ratio makes financing challenging

Economic Indicators

Population
851,036
Median Income
—
Data pending
Unemployment Rate
—
Data pending
Price-to-Income
—
Data pending

Who this market fits

Best for
  • +Appreciation buyers: YoY growth is meaningfully above the long-run average
  • +Patient holders willing to accept negative carry for equity gains
  • +All-cash buyers: removing debt service flips the cap rate to actual yield
Skip if
  • −You need positive cash flow on day one at typical leverage
  • −You can't tolerate negative leverage (cap rate below mortgage rate today)
  • −You rely on FHA-style financing: prices are stretched relative to local incomes
  • −You want a market with broad institutional consensus on fundamentals

Compare to Nearby Counties

CountyVerdict
RiversideCA
42$598,126$2,5545.12%AvoidView
NevadaCA
41$597,768$2,4324.88%AvoidView
CurrentSan FranciscoCA
40$1,416,641$4,5393.84%Avoid
MariposaCA
40$386,152Est. pending—AvoidView
San Luis ObispoCA
40$879,407$2,8263.86%AvoidView
YoloCA
39$608,368$2,2374.41%AvoidView

The Bottom Line

AvoidSan Francisco may be challenging for traditional rentals. High prices or low rents make cash flow difficult.

San Francisco County in California scores 40/100, ranking #751 of 1,000 US counties (top 96%). At 20% down and current rates, a median-priced rental loses about $4476/month; the 3.84% gross rent-to-price ratio doesn't survive debt service. The thesis here is appreciation, value-add, house hacking, or all-cash.

Monthly Cash Flow
$-4,476/mo
Cap Rate
2.5%
Cash-on-Cash
-16.5%

Related markets

All counties in California →

Rent vs buy in California cities

Rent vs buy in Los Angeles, CAMedian $859,958 · rent $2,809/moRent vs buy in San Diego, CAMedian $910,765 · rent $2,933/moRent vs buy in San Jose, CAMedian $1,578,502 · rent $3,419/moRent vs buy in San Francisco, CAMedian $1,245,307 · rent $3,680/moRent vs buy in Sacramento, CAMedian $518,553 · rent $2,149/moAll California citiesFull rent-vs-buy directory for the state

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