Champaign County

Champaign County sits at a gross rent-to-price ratio of 6.99%, which lands it squarely in the middle of the cash-flow versus appreciation spectrum, leaning toward appreciation. The 4.55% cap rate reflects a market where purchase prices have moved faster than rents, and the modeled cash-on-cash return of -7.57% at a 6.85% rate with 20% down makes clear that this is not a market where leverage works in your favor right now, at least not on a standard buy-and-hold with a conventional mortgage. Median home price is $238,398 against median rent of $1,389, and year-over-year price growth of 5.03% is real and above most inflation benchmarks. The market scores an 86 on appreciation and 70 on cash flow, which is an honest summary of the tradeoff: you are buying growth, not day-one income.

For a cash-flow buyer, the numbers as modeled do not clear the bar. Monthly mortgage at $1,250 plus estimated expenses of $486 puts total monthly carry at $1,736, against $1,389 in rent, producing a $346 monthly deficit before any vacancy. The only paths to positive cash flow here are a larger down payment that reduces mortgage service, below-median acquisition prices, or a value-add approach where rents can be pushed above market. A value-add operator who can acquire distressed product at a discount to the $238K median and reposition it above the $1,389 rent benchmark has the most realistic angle. For a pure appreciation buyer with a long hold horizon and the ability to absorb negative carry, the 5.03% annual price growth and 86 appreciation score make this one of the better bets in Illinois.

Champaign County is home to the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, which creates a structurally consistent rental demand pool anchored by students, faculty, and university-adjacent staff. That institutional anchor matters for stability in ways that a simple population number of 206,525 does not fully capture: enrollment-driven demand tends to persist across economic cycles in ways that purely employment-driven markets do not. The county's overall stability score of 50, however, suggests that university dependence cuts both ways. Concentration in a single anchor creates a ceiling on diversification, and rental demand can be seasonal and concentrated in specific property types and locations proximate to campus.

Property tax deserves its own line on your underwrite here. Illinois carries a state-average effective property tax rate of 2.27%, flagged as very high, and on a $238,398 purchase that translates to $5,412 in annual taxes. Combined with $644 in estimated annual insurance, monthly tax and insurance runs $505, which is not a rounding error when gross rent is $1,389. That $505 alone represents 36% of gross rent before debt service or maintenance. The note on the data is worth repeating: 2.27% is a state-average estimate from Tax Foundation 2024, and county and township rates in Illinois can differ materially, sometimes significantly higher in specific jurisdictions. Before underwriting any specific acquisition, verify the actual assessed value and millage rate at the parcel level. Illinois property tax is the single largest structural headwind in this market.

The stability score of 50 is the risk flag most worth monitoring. University towns can experience enrollment-driven demand swings, and any sustained decline in student headcount, whether from demographic shifts, remote learning policy, or competition from other institutions, would compress rental demand without a diversified economic base to absorb it. The data does not provide vacancy statistics, so this is a directional concern rather than a quantified risk, but a single-anchor economy at this scale warrants due diligence on enrollment trends before committing capital.

Against its neighbors, Champaign holds a clear position. Kankakee County at $211,066 median and a rent-to-price ratio of 7.44% offers marginally better raw yield, and Williamson County at $152,606 median and 8.39% ratio is the highest-yield option in this peer group, though at a much smaller and less liquid market. Cook County at 8.06% ratio and $2,113 median rent offers better yield metrics than Champaign but at $314,517 median price with Chicago-specific regulatory and tax exposure. McHenry County at 7.26% ratio sits between the two on yield but at $349,331 median requires significantly more capital. Champaign makes the most sense over these neighbors when the investor's thesis is appreciation and institutional-anchor stability at a manageable entry price, not when the primary goal is cash-flow yield from day one. If yield is the priority, Kankakee or Williamson deserve a harder look first.