Grundy County

Grundy County sits at a gross rent-to-price ratio of 0.052, which translates to an annualized gross yield of roughly 5.2% before any expenses hit the ledger. The model cap rate comes in at 3.37%, and at a 6.85% financing rate the spread is deeply negative: the levered cash-flow estimate runs negative $787 per month on a $322,819 purchase with 20% down, producing a cash-on-cash return of -12.72%. That is not a rounding error. This is unambiguously an appreciation-oriented market, not a cash-flow market, and the appreciation score of 82 out of 100 reflects that, with home prices up 3.56% year-over-year. The overall score of 59 and a cash-flow score of 48 confirm the market is average at best for total returns and below-average for income generation in the current rate environment.

The investor this market suits is someone buying for long-run price appreciation in a suburban Illinois corridor, not someone underwriting to day-one positive cash flow. The 82 appreciation score is the highest number in the Grundy data set and is the only compelling reason to own here at current prices. A value-add operator might be able to improve the cash-flow math by forcing rents above the $1,392.50 median, but the gap to cover is large: even pushing rents 15% above median would not close a $787 monthly shortfall at current financing. The affordability index of 61 is moderate, meaning there is still a meaningful renter pool who cannot afford to buy at $322,819, which provides some demand floor, but it does not fix the yield math. This is a market for the patient, equity-focused buyer who has the balance sheet to carry negative cash flow and is betting on continued price appreciation in the Chicago exurban orbit.

On the economic side, the data does not include specific employer or economic anchor information for Grundy County, so that dimension of the demand thesis cannot be quantified here. What the population figure of 52,624 does tell you is that this is a small county, which carries its own concentration risk: a single large employer exit or a demographic shift outward would move vacancy and rent levels in ways that are harder to diversify against than in a larger metro.

The tax and insurance picture is the single biggest underwriting hazard in this market. The state-average effective property tax rate for Illinois is 2.27%, flagged as very high, and on a $322,819 purchase that generates $7,328 in annual property tax alone. Combined with $872 in annual insurance, the monthly carry just for tax and insurance is $683. That $683 figure is embedded in the $487 estimated expenses line and is the dominant cost driver. At 2.27%, Illinois property taxes are high enough that they deserve their own line on your underwrite and a sensitivity check on what the actual county and township rate looks like, because the 2.27% figure is a state-average estimate and Grundy's specific rate may differ materially. Investors used to underwriting in low-tax states should stress-test this number carefully before committing.

The concentration risk in a county of 52,624 people is real. A small population base means limited transaction volume, thinner rental demand diversification, and higher sensitivity to local economic shocks. There is no vacancy or crime data in the provided inputs to quantify that further, but the size alone warrants a conservative underwriting assumption on stabilized occupancy.

Compared to its neighbors, Grundy is a middle-of-the-road option. DuPage County offers a higher rent-to-price ratio of 0.059 versus Grundy's 0.052 and a higher overall score of 66 versus 59, which makes DuPage the stronger total-return and income candidate among the neighbors with full data, though its median price of $416,478 demands more capital. Monroe County is priced similarly at $327,942 but yields worse at a 0.047 rent-to-price ratio and carries the same overall score of 59, making it a straightforward avoid relative to Grundy on yield. Greene County and Bond County both score above Grundy at 65 and 67 respectively, at dramatically lower price points of $106,001 and $154,738, which likely reflects better cash-flow math at lower absolute prices, though rent data is absent for those markets. Choose Grundy over its neighbors specifically when your thesis is suburban Chicago land value appreciation, you have the reserves to carry negative cash flow, and you are not relying on this asset for current income. If you need yield or if your capital is constrained, the lower-priced neighbors or DuPage at a higher absolute entry deserve a harder look first.