Lawrence County

Lawrence County sits at a median home price of $99,537, making it one of the more affordable entry points in Illinois. Home prices declined 14.38% year-over-year, which is a meaningful drop and signals either a market correction or continued demand deterioration, not a buying dip in a recovering market. The affordability index scores a perfect 100, and the county ranks 85th out of 102 Illinois counties overall, placing it in the bottom 17% statewide and the 13th percentile nationally across 1,000 counties. Cash flow and appreciation scores both register at zero, which is the data telling you something plainly: this market is not currently generating measurable returns on either dimension. With a cap rate of zero and cash-on-cash return of zero in the investment estimate, the numbers don't support a conventional buy-and-hold underwrite at this time without significant additional diligence on actual rents achievable in the local market.

Given a 6.85% interest rate environment and a purchase price around $99,500, the carry math deserves scrutiny before anything else. The property tax rate here is the Illinois state-average effective rate of 2.27%, which the Tax Foundation pegs as very high, and that designation is warranted. At that rate on a $99,537 purchase, annual property taxes run approximately $2,259, and combined with estimated annual insurance of $269, you're looking at $211 per month in tax and insurance alone before touching principal, interest, maintenance, or vacancy. That $211 figure is a real underwriting consideration on a low-price asset, because it represents a proportionally large fixed-cost floor. Note that 2.27% is a state-average estimate, and actual county or township rates in Lawrence may differ materially, so pull the county assessor data before finalizing any underwrite.

This market does not fit a clean cash-flow buyer or an appreciation buyer based on current data. The zero scores on both dimensions, combined with a price trajectory that declined nearly 15% in a year, point to a market with thin liquidity and soft demand rather than a distressed-asset opportunity with a clear recovery catalyst. A value-add operator might look at the $99,537 median price and see room to buy below that at sheriff sales or estate dispositions, force value through renovation, and rent at a premium to the local median, but that strategy requires knowing what rents are achievable, and this data set does not provide a local median rent figure. Without a rent anchor, you cannot calculate a price-to-rent ratio or confirm any yield thesis. Any investor seriously evaluating Lawrence County needs that rent figure as the first additional data point to collect.

The data does not include economic anchors or employer information for Lawrence County, so employer concentration and job-base stability cannot be assessed from this data set alone. What the population figure does tell you is that this is a county of roughly 15,300 people, which is small enough that a single large employer closing or a demographic shift in a specific age cohort could move rental demand noticeably. Small-population rural Illinois counties have faced sustained population pressure for decades, and a 14.38% home price decline in a single year is consistent with that structural backdrop. Investors should pull census population trend data before committing capital here.

Comparing Lawrence to its neighboring counties sharpens the picture. Greene County, at a $106,001 median price, is nearly the same price point but carries an overall score of 65 versus Lawrence's 45, making it a materially better-ranked market at effectively the same entry cost. That gap is significant, and for an investor choosing between the two at similar purchase prices, Greene County's higher score suggests better underlying demand or return characteristics. Calhoun County scores 61 at a $184,783 median, and Schuyler County scores 49 at $140,751. Monroe County is a different profile entirely: $327,942 median, a 0.047 rent-to-price ratio, and a score of 59. Monroe's rent-to-price ratio translates to roughly $1,285 per month on that median price, which is a real yield anchor, though the higher entry cost changes the equity requirement and financing structure. Lawrence's core advantage over all four neighbors is price, but price alone is not a return. An investor should choose Lawrence over its neighbors only if they have specific local knowledge, a deal priced well below the $99,537 median, and a confirmed rent comparable that produces a positive spread after the $211 monthly tax and insurance load plus financing costs. Absent that, Greene County's better score at a nearly identical price point is the more defensible allocation.