Madison County

Madison County sits at a 0.073 gross rent-to-price ratio, which places it squarely in the middle ground between pure cash-flow and pure appreciation plays. At a median home price of $197,597 and median rent of $1,196, the raw numbers look workable until you run the full stack: at 6.85% financing with 20% down, the monthly mortgage comes to $1,036, estimated expenses add another $419, and the model spits out negative $259 per month in cash flow and a cash-on-cash return of -6.84%. The cap rate of 4.72% is the honest number to anchor on, and it tells you this market produces acceptable unlevered returns but bleeds when you add a mortgage at current rates. The 5.29% year-over-year price appreciation and an appreciation score of 87 out of 100 signal that Madison is leaning hard toward the appreciation side of the spectrum despite its surface-level affordability.

The investor this market suits best right now is someone who can tolerate negative monthly carry in exchange for price appreciation, or someone with enough cash to buy down leverage meaningfully. A pure cash-flow buyer targeting positive monthly income from day one will struggle at these rate levels; the math simply does not close at 20% down with a 6.85% note. A value-add operator who can force rents above the $1,196 median or acquire below the $197,597 median has a better shot, since the cap rate equation improves quickly when you shave purchase price or lift rent. The affordability index of 88 (relative to national benchmarks) and median price well under $200,000 give a value-add buyer room to find discounted assets without chasing into a premium market. An appreciation-oriented buyer who plans to hold five-plus years and can service the negative carry has the clearest case given the 87 appreciation score and the county's 91st-percentile national ranking.

No economic anchor data was provided for this county, so no employer or sector analysis is included here.

The tax and insurance picture in Madison County is a real underwriting problem. The state-average effective property tax rate for Illinois is 2.27%, which the Tax Foundation flags as very high, and that rate alone generates $4,485 per year, or $374 per month, in property tax on a median-priced asset. Add $44 per month in insurance and the combined tax-and-insurance burden hits $418 monthly, nearly matching the $419 in total estimated expenses listed in the model. That means roughly half your gross rent is going to taxes and insurance before you touch maintenance, vacancy, or management. At 2.27%, the rate deserves its own line on every underwrite, and you should verify the actual township assessment rate for any specific parcel, because county and township rates in Illinois can diverge meaningfully from the state average. This is not a footnote item; it is a structural headwind that limits how much cash flow even a well-bought property can generate.

The primary risk in Madison County is that stability score of 50 out of 100, the lowest figure in the dataset by a wide margin and a significant drag on what is otherwise a reasonably ranked market. The data does not specify what drives that score, but investors should probe demographic trends, population growth trajectory, and economic concentration before committing. Illinois as a whole carries fiscal and outmigration risks that are well-documented, and a stability score at the midpoint of the national range warrants direct due diligence rather than an assumption that appreciation will continue.

Against its neighbors, Madison holds up selectively. Winnebago County, at a $195,413 median and a 0.074 rent-to-price ratio, is essentially a coin flip on price with a marginally better gross yield and an overall score of 75 versus Madison's 74. If pure yield is the goal, Winnebago edges Madison slightly on the rent ratio. Livingston at $160,375 and Shelby at $156,256 are cheaper entry points, both with overall scores of 75, and either could offer better cash-flow math at the same rate environment simply because the purchase price is lower. Pike County at $112,450 and a score of 75 is the deepest value entry in this peer group, though lower prices often reflect thinner rental demand and population bases that require separate scrutiny. Woodford County at $220,926 scores 72 overall and costs more, making it the hardest to justify on either yield or relative score. Choose Madison over its neighbors when you want a larger, more liquid market with above-average appreciation momentum and can accept the Illinois tax burden; choose Livingston, Shelby, or Pike when you need the purchase price lower to make monthly cash flow work.