Carroll County

Carroll County, IL sits at a median home price of $165,801 with 11.85% year-over-year appreciation, an affordability index of 94, and a national percentile rank of 89th out of 1,000 counties scored. Those numbers tell a clear story: this is a deeply affordable market that has been moving, not stagnating. What the data does not provide are rent figures, a cap rate, or a cash-on-cash return, which means Carroll's cash-flow profile cannot be calculated from available inputs. The system returns zeros across those fields. An investor cannot responsibly underwrite this market on the numbers provided without pulling local rent comparables independently. What can be said is that the appreciation score of 75 and the affordability index of 94 suggest a market where price entry is low and recent price momentum has been real, but whether rents support the carry is an open question the data leaves unanswered.

That profile fits one type of buyer more than others: an appreciation-oriented investor or a value-add operator who can manufacture their own spread. A cash-flow buyer who needs the numbers to pencil at closing should be cautious here. Without a confirmed gross rent multiplier or cap rate, there is no basis to claim positive cash flow, and the carry costs are not trivial. The cash-flow score is listed as zero, not as a low number, which suggests the model could not confirm a cash-flow case. An investor who can purchase at or below the $165,801 median, execute a light renovation, and reposition a unit at rents above what comparable properties currently achieve may find the low acquisition cost gives them room to work. A pure buy-and-hold investor expecting market rents to cover debt service at 6.85% interest on 80% leverage should verify rent levels before committing.

The tax and insurance picture in Carroll deserves its own line on the underwrite, and frankly it is one of the most important numbers in this dataset. Illinois carries a state-average effective property tax rate of 2.27%, flagged here as very high, which at the $165,801 purchase price produces an estimated $3,764 in annual property taxes. Combined with $448 in annual insurance, the monthly tax-and-insurance load comes to $351 before a single dollar of mortgage, maintenance, or vacancy is counted. To put that in context: $351 per month is real money on a sub-$166,000 asset. If market rents in Carroll are in the $900-$1,100 range typical of rural Illinois, that $351 represents 32% to 39% of gross rent consumed by tax and insurance alone, before debt service. Illinois property tax rates are notoriously variable at the township and county level, and the 2.27% figure is a state-average estimate from the Tax Foundation's 2024 data; actual Carroll County or township rates may differ. An investor must pull the actual tax bill on any specific parcel. This is not a minor footnote: it is the variable most likely to break a cash-flow projection that looked acceptable on paper.

The small population of 15,594 is the central risk in Carroll. A county of this size has a thin tenant pool, limited economic diversification, and limited liquidity when it comes time to sell. No economic anchor employers are identified in the data, which means the analysis cannot speak to job stability or demand drivers beyond what the appreciation numbers already show. Rural Illinois counties without a named institutional employer, a hospital system, or a manufacturing anchor carry higher concentration risk: one plant closure or employer departure can move vacancy rates materially in a market this size. Investors should independently verify what is driving the 11.85% appreciation before attributing it to fundamental demand rather than low inventory or temporary migration effects.

Compared to the neighboring counties provided, Carroll is not the best-yielding option in this peer group. Williamson County shows a rent-to-price ratio of 8.39% at a median home price of $152,606, making it the strongest cash-flow candidate among the listed neighbors and cheaper to enter than Carroll. Kankakee County shows a rent-to-price ratio of 7.44% at $211,066, offering higher rents but a higher buy-in. Madison County comes in at 7.02% against a $187,237 median. Carroll's own rent-to-price ratio is not calculable from provided data, but its median price of $165,801 sits in the middle of this peer group. An investor prioritizing cash flow with numbers to back it up should look at Williamson County first, where the math is actually present and the ratio is the strongest of any neighbor listed. Carroll makes more sense than Williamson only if the appreciation trajectory or a specific value-add opportunity justifies the preference, or if the investor already has local knowledge of Carroll's rental market that the available data cannot supply.