Union County

Union County, Illinois sits at a median home price of $148,877 with year-over-year appreciation of 2.94%. The data does not include median rent or cap rate figures, so a clean price-to-rent ratio and cash-on-cash return cannot be calculated here. What the scoring structure does tell you is that this county scores 0 on cash flow and 79 on appreciation, which places it firmly on the appreciation end of the spectrum rather than the cash-flow end. The affordability index of 98 and an overall score of 76 putting it at the 95th national percentile out of 1,000 counties suggest the market is attractively priced relative to peers, but the absence of rent data means you cannot yet confirm whether rental income will cover carry costs at a 6.85% rate on a $148,877 purchase.

Because cash flow scores at 0 and appreciation scores at 79, this market does not suit a buyer whose underwrite depends on day-one positive cash flow. It suits an investor with tolerance for break-even or slightly negative monthly returns who is betting on price appreciation and below-market entry. The $148,877 median keeps absolute dollar exposure low, which may appeal to a value-add operator willing to buy distressed stock in an affordable market and hold through an appreciation cycle. The stability score of 50, however, signals meaningful uncertainty, so a value-add thesis here needs to be paired with a realistic exit strategy, not an assumption that the market will simply absorb renovated product at premium rents.

The carry cost picture is where this market gets difficult. Illinois carries a state-average effective property tax rate of 2.27%, flagged here as very high, and that rate deserves its own line on every underwrite you build for this county. On the $148,877 median purchase, that works out to $3,380 annually in property taxes and $402 in insurance, for a combined monthly tax-and-insurance burden of $315. That $315 is a hard floor before you add mortgage, maintenance, management, or vacancy reserves. Keep in mind this is a state-average estimate sourced from Tax Foundation 2024 data, and actual Union County or township-level rates may differ, so pull the county assessor's effective rate before finalizing any numbers. In a market with no confirmed rent data and a cash-flow score of 0, a $315 monthly carry line for taxes and insurance alone is the single most important variable to stress-test.

Union County's population of 17,122 is the primary risk factor the data supports discussing. Small, rural Illinois counties face real demographic headwinds, and the stability score of 50 reflects that. A thin rental population means vacancy can move sharply on even one or two vacant units, and rental demand is harder to replace when the local labor pool is small. No economic anchor or employer data was provided, so the structural drivers of rental demand here are unknown from this dataset, which is itself a reason to do additional local research before committing capital. Regulatory risk in Illinois is real at the state level given the broader landlord-tenant environment, though nothing in this dataset speaks to Union County-specific ordinances.

Comparing Union to its neighbors sharpens the picture. McDonough County at $92,986 median and a gross rent-to-price ratio of 12.1% is the clearest cash-flow alternative in this dataset, generating approximately $937 per month in median rent against a much lower purchase price. If cash flow is your primary objective, McDonough's numbers make a stronger case. Sangamon County at $186,233 median offers $1,129 in monthly rent but a lower gross yield of 7.3%, positioning it as a more liquid, larger-market option at a higher price point. Clinton County at $212,337 and Pike County at $112,450 appear without rent data, limiting direct yield comparisons. Shelby County at $156,256 is priced comparably to Union with the same overall score limitation of 75 versus Union's 76, but again without rent data to distinguish the two. You choose Union over these neighbors when your thesis is low absolute entry price plus appreciation potential in a small market, and when you have done the legwork to confirm that actual county tax rates and local rents support the carry. If you need the cash flow story to pencil on day one, McDonough County is the more straightforward bet at 12.1% gross yield.