Deep-dive analysis
Will market analysis
Will County sits at a gross rent-to-price ratio of 7.57%, which places it toward the better end of the Chicago metro suburban spectrum but still well short of the 8–9% threshold where financing typically works cleanly at today's rates. The model cap rate of 4.92% reflects that tension: there's real income relative to asset value, but not enough to overcome a 6.85% mortgage. At 20% down on a $376,285 purchase, the modeled cash-on-cash return comes in at negative 5.95%, with monthly cash flow of negative $429 after a $1,973 mortgage payment and $831 in estimated expenses. Home prices are up 2.79% year-over-year, which is moderate appreciation, not transformative. The overall score of 65 out of 100, landing at the 68th national percentile across 1,000 counties, tells you this is a serviceable market, not a top-tier one. The cash flow score of 76 and appreciation score of 78 are both meaningfully higher than the stability score of 50 and affordability index of 49, which is a signal worth paying attention to.
Given those numbers, Will County fits best as an appreciation play with a side of income, not a cash-flow-first buy. The negative monthly cash flow at standard financing means a pure cash-flow buyer is going to struggle unless they bring more equity to the table, pay cash, or find assets trading below the county median. An appreciation buyer with a 5-to-10-year horizon gets 2.79% annual price growth plus rent appreciation in a market where the median rent of $2,374 gives tenants real occupancy incentive to stay put rather than buy at $376K with a 6.85% rate. A value-add operator who can force appreciation through renovation and push rents above the $2,374 median has the best path to making the math work on a financed deal, since the cap rate of 4.92% suggests there's room to move NOI if you're buying below median or adding units.
Will County's population of 696,774 makes it one of the more populated counties in Illinois, anchoring significant rental demand by sheer scale. Its position as part of the broader Chicago metropolitan area's southwestern suburban ring creates inherent demand from commuters and households priced out of Cook or DuPage counties. The affordability index of 49 reflects that Will is not cheap, but it remains less expensive than DuPage to the north, which keeps relative inbound migration pressure on the rental stock.
The most important underwriting line item here is property taxes. At a state-average effective rate of 2.27%, flagged as very high, the annual tax burden on a $376,285 property runs approximately $8,542, or $712 per month. Combined with the estimated $1,016 in annual insurance ($85/month), the monthly tax-and-insurance load alone comes to $797. That is a number that deserves its own line on your underwrite before you ever look at mortgage payments or management fees. Illinois already has some of the highest property tax rates in the country, and Will County's local and township rates can diverge materially from the state average, so treat 2.27% as a floor for diligence purposes, not a ceiling. If the actual effective rate on a specific parcel runs closer to 2.5–3%, which is common in certain Will County townships, your carry costs shift enough to materially change projected returns. Verify the actual tax bill on any specific address before committing.
The stability score of 50 is the number that deserves scrutiny. Without breaking above median on stability, this market carries concentration risk tied to the Chicago metro economic cycle. A broad regional slowdown would affect Will County directly and without the institutional employment diversity that buffers some larger core markets. The affordability index of 49 also means that at current prices and rates, the pool of potential buyers who can absorb your exit is not deep, which matters for your hold-period assumptions.
Compared to its neighbors, Will County makes a clear case against DuPage, which carries a higher median price of $416,478 and a substantially worse rent-to-price ratio of 5.88% versus Will's 7.57%. DuPage's overall score of 66 edges Will's 65 by one point, but the income math is clearly worse. Kane County, at a median of $363,906 and rent-to-price of 6.64%, scores 68 overall but offers meaningfully less rental yield than Will's 7.57%. If you are a Chicago suburban buyer choosing between these three, Will County delivers the best gross yield of the group at similar asset quality and metro access. Adams County shows a rent-to-price of 6.74% at a $174,680 median, and Greene and Bond counties are priced under $160K, but those markets are fundamentally different investment theses tied to downstate Illinois economics rather than Chicago metro demand. Choose Will over its neighbors when your strategy is suburban Chicago exposure with the highest available gross yield in the immediate metro ring, and when you can bring enough equity or find below-median assets to neutralize the negative cash-flow problem that straight financing creates at today's rates.
Scenario comparison
| Scenario | Purchase price | Monthly cash flow | Cap rate | Cash-on-cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
75% of median value-add or distressed | $282,213 | +$64/mo | 6.6% | +1.2% |
Median typical MLS deal | $376,285 | -$429/mo | 4.9% | -6.0% |
125% of median newer / premium | $470,356 | -$922/mo | 3.9% | -10.2% |
Price History
Median Home Price
Median Rent
Historical data from Zillow ZHVI/ZORI
Quick Investment Calculator
Purchase
Monthly Cash Flow
* Based on county median values. 35% expenses include taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, and property management. Actual results vary by property.
Score Breakdown
Based on 7.57% rent-to-price ratio. Higher ratios indicate stronger cash flow potential.
Based on 2.8% YoY price growth. Moderate growth (3-8%) scores highest.
Population data not available.
Based on price relative to estimated local incomes.
Scores are calculated using real Zillow home value and rent data, Census population data, and economic indicators. The weighted average produces the overall investment score. Markets with missing rent data use estimated values based on regional averages.
Investment Outlook
Strengths
- +Above-average rent-to-price ratio (7.57%)
- +Complete rent data available
Challenges
- -Negative cash flow at typical financing (-$429/mo)
- -Negative leverage (cap rate 4.9% < mortgage rate 6.9%)
Economic Indicators
Who this market fits
- +All-cash buyers: removing debt service flips the cap rate to actual yield
- +Value-add operators who can buy below median and force rent up
- −You need positive cash flow on day one at typical leverage
- −You can't tolerate negative leverage (cap rate below mortgage rate today)
Compare to Nearby Counties
Section 8 in Will County: payment standards by ZIP, PHA waitlist status, and voucher counts are on VoucherMatch, the same HUD dataset with the tenant demand side attached.
The Bottom Line
Will County in Illinois scores 65/100, ranking #253 of 1,000 US counties (top 32%). At 20% down and current rates, a median-priced rental loses about $429/month; the 7.57% gross rent-to-price ratio doesn't survive debt service. The thesis here is appreciation, value-add, house hacking, or all-cash.