Johnson County

Johnson County sits at a median home price of $458,265 against a median rent of $1,760, producing a gross rent-to-price ratio of 0.046, or roughly 46 basis points. That is a thin yield. The cap rate on a standard purchase works out to 2.99%, and at a 6.85% mortgage rate with 20% down, the modeled monthly cash flow is negative $1,259, which compounds to a cash-on-cash return of -14.33%. Those numbers place Johnson County firmly on the appreciation end of the spectrum. The 4.7% year-over-year home price gain is the engine this market runs on, not rental income. The appreciation score of 85 out of 100 confirms that positioning, while the cash-flow score of 39 is equally honest about the other side of the ledger.

This is not a market for a buyer underwriting to day-one cash flow. An investor who needs the rent check to cover the mortgage in year one should stop here and look elsewhere. The buyer Johnson County suits is one with a long hold horizon, willing to accept paper losses in early years in exchange for equity accumulation in a large, stable suburban market with a population of 610,742. An appreciation-focused operator who can bring meaningful capital to the down payment, perhaps enough to reduce the mortgage burden materially below the modeled $2,402 per month, could make the numbers work if they underwrite conservatively and plan for a seven-to-ten year hold. Value-add operators face the same ceiling: even with forced appreciation through renovation, the underlying rent-to-price ratio limits how much of a spread they can create at resale without waiting for the broader market to move.

The tax and insurance picture deserves a careful read in the underwrite. At a state-average effective property tax rate of 1.41% and an insurance rate of 0.58%, the combined monthly tax and insurance obligation lands at $760. That is a real number. It accounts for a significant portion of the $616 in estimated monthly expenses already embedded in the model, and it cannot be managed down. Kansas property taxes are flagged here as normal relative to other states, so there is no unusual penalty or advantage compared to the national baseline, but at $6,462 per year in tax alone on a $458,265 asset, it is not immaterial. Keep in mind that 1.41% is a state-average estimate from Tax Foundation 2024 data; actual rates at the county and township level in Johnson County will vary and should be confirmed against the actual parcel before closing.

The affordability index of 35 out of 100 signals that Johnson County is not a cheap place to operate. Renters here are competing with homeownership as an alternative, which can create upward pressure on vacancy in softer markets. The overall score of 52 and a national percentile rank of 28 out of 1,000 counties confirm this is not a high-conviction buy-and-hold rental market by the numbers, it is a market where the thesis is driven almost entirely by the appreciation score of 85.

Johnson County's neighbors offer a useful contrast. Labette, Neosho, and Barber counties all sit below $110,000 in median home price, which mechanically produces very different rent-to-price dynamics. At those price points an investor can often find positive cash flow, though the overall scores of 49 to 51 suggest the trade-off is lower confidence in demand depth and long-term appreciation. Leavenworth County is the most instructive comparison: median home price of $334,681, median rent of $1,131, rent-to-price ratio of 0.041, and an overall score of 56 versus Johnson's 52. Leavenworth is cheaper to enter but its rent-to-price ratio is actually lower than Johnson's, which is counterintuitive and worth investigating, but it scores slightly better overall, suggesting Leavenworth's broader fundamentals may offer a more balanced risk profile. Ford County at $204,156 and an overall score of 58 is the strongest performer in the neighbor set by score, at less than half the price point of Johnson. An investor who chooses Johnson County over these neighbors is explicitly betting that the 4.7% annual appreciation and the scale of a 610,000-person market justify accepting a deeply negative cash-flow position. That bet may pay off, but it requires patient capital, a high tolerance for monthly carry, and conviction that the Kansas City suburban market will continue to appreciate at or near its recent pace.