Carroll County

Carroll County sits at a median home price of $195,711 with home values down 3.1% year-over-year, which immediately tells you this is not an appreciation play. The affordability index of 88 confirms prices are below the baseline, and the county ranks 501st out of 1,000 nationally (36th percentile) and 78th out of 120 Kentucky counties. The cash flow score is zero and the cap rate field returns zero, meaning the tool cannot construct a positive return scenario at the $195,711 entry point and 6.85% financing. That is the single most important number on this sheet. Whatever gross rent the market generates, it is not clearing expenses at current rates and prices with any margin to speak of.

The zero cash flow score rules Carroll out for a pure income buyer unless you can acquire meaningfully below median, negotiate seller concessions, or bring a larger down payment that reduces the mortgage carry. The appreciation score of 35 out of 100 combined with the negative price trend removes that angle as well, at least in the near term. Where Carroll could make sense is for a value-add operator who buys distressed assets at a discount to the $195,711 median, forces equity through renovation, then refinances or exits into a thinner buyer pool. The affordability index of 88, meaning prices are below what the benchmark considers fully valued, suggests some ceiling on downside, but a 3.1% price decline in the trailing year is the market telling you demand is soft. At a population of 10,842 the buyer pool on exit is also narrow, which is a liquidity risk a value-add operator needs to price in.

No economic anchors or employer data were provided for Carroll County, so no claims can be made here about the job base or what is driving, or failing to drive, rental demand. The stability score of 50 is middling, consistent with a small rural county without an obvious institutional employment anchor, but the data does not support anything more specific than that.

On carry costs, the tax and insurance burden is manageable relative to the purchase price. Kentucky's state-average effective property tax rate is 0.86%, flagged as normal, producing an estimated $1,683 in annual taxes. Insurance adds another $646 per year at a 0.33% rate. Combined, that is $194 per month in tax and insurance carry, a figure worth holding in mind: on a $195,711 asset it is not punishing, but in a market where cash flow is already at zero, every fixed cost matters. The 0.86% rate is a state-average estimate per Tax Foundation 2024 data, and the actual Carroll County or township rate may differ, so pull the county assessor's figures before finalizing your underwrite.

The primary risks here are concentration and liquidity. A county of under 11,000 people means any single employer departure or demographic shift registers quickly in both vacancy and resale values. The negative price trend is already evidence the market is absorbing something, whether that is population outflow, income stagnation, or simply post-pandemic price correction the data does not say, but the direction is negative and the market is too thin to absorb a forced sale without a discount.

Compared to the neighboring counties in the dataset, Carroll is not the obvious choice for most strategies. Calloway County at a $176,410 median and a rent-to-price ratio of 7.76% is the standout, generating the kind of gross yield that gives a cash flow underwrite room to breathe even at 6.85% rates. Warren County at a 5.18% rent-to-price ratio and Madison County at 4.25% both offer more rental demand evidence and slightly higher overall scores (56 and 57 respectively) than Carroll's 55, at higher entry prices. Carroll makes sense over a neighbor only in a scenario where an investor has a specific off-market opportunity well below the $195,711 median, wants the lowest absolute dollar entry in the group outside of Johnson County ($138,885, overall score 51), and has a value-add thesis with a defined exit that does not depend on broad market appreciation. For a straight buy-and-hold at market prices with standard financing, the zero cash flow score is a hard stop.