Lawrence County

Lawrence County sits at a median home price of $144,598, making it one of the more affordable entry points in Kentucky. The affordability index reads 99 out of 100, which confirms that on a price basis alone this market is accessible. The problem is that the data returns zeros across cap rate, cash-on-cash return, estimated cash flow, and monthly mortgage, which signals that rental income data sufficient to close out a full underwrite is not available here. What the data does tell you is that the price-to-rent ratio and gross yield cannot be reliably calculated from this dataset, so any cash-flow projection you build will need to be grounded in your own rent comps pulled locally. The appreciation picture is equally cautious: home prices are down 4.71% year over year, the appreciation score is 26 out of 100, and the overall score lands at 55, placing Lawrence in the 36th percentile nationally and 78th out of 120 Kentucky counties. This is not a market you buy for near-term appreciation or a market you buy sight-unseen on yield assumptions. It is a market you underwrite from scratch, carefully.

Given those numbers, Lawrence County fits a narrow buyer profile. The $144,598 median price means the capital requirement to get in is low, roughly $28,920 on a 20% down payment at the stated 6.85% interest rate. For an investor willing to do the local legwork on rent rolls and vacancy, that entry price leaves room to manufacture a return if the asset is acquired below median and rents are at or above market. A value-add operator with a tolerance for illiquid, rural markets and genuine knowledge of the Louisa, Kentucky rental pool is the most plausible buyer here. A pure appreciation buyer should look elsewhere given the negative price trend. A passive cash-flow buyer relying on tool-generated underwriting should not transact until real rent data is in hand.

The data does not include economic anchor employers or an economy note for Lawrence County, so no claims about the local job base are made here. What the population figure of 16,228 does tell you is that this is a small, rural county. Small population markets carry a liquidity premium: fewer buyers, fewer renters, and longer days on market when you eventually want to exit. That constraint is not fatal to a buy-and-hold strategy, but it shapes your hold period assumptions and your exit options significantly.

On carry costs, the combined monthly tax and insurance figure is $143, based on a 0.86% state-average effective property tax rate and a 0.33% insurance rate. Kentucky's state-average rate of 0.86% falls in the normal range, meaning it does not present the kind of drag that high-tax states impose on cash flow. That $143 monthly figure is manageable relative to the price point and should be straightforward to absorb in your debt service calculation once you have real rent data. Keep in mind the tax figure is a state-average estimate per Tax Foundation 2024 data, and the actual Lawrence County rate may differ, so confirm the county assessor's current millage rate before you finalize your model.

The primary risk here is concentration. A population of 16,228 in a market with declining home prices means your renter pool is thin and your exit market is thinner. If the local economy softens, demand for rentals does not expand to absorb vacancy the way it would in a metro. The 4.71% year-over-year price decline is a flag worth understanding before you close: is it a correction from a pandemic-era run-up, or is it demographic contraction? That distinction matters materially for a five-to-ten-year hold thesis.

Compared to the neighbors in the dataset, Lawrence is the second-cheapest market at $144,598, just above Johnson County's $138,885. Johnson County scores 51 overall versus Lawrence's 55, suggesting Lawrence is marginally better positioned, though neither is particularly strong. Where the neighbor comparison gets instructive is Calloway County, which carries a rent-to-price ratio of 0.0776, the highest of any county in this dataset, against a median price of $176,409. If your primary goal is gross yield, Calloway County's numbers are materially better on paper. Warren County at $286,155 and a 0.052 rent-to-price ratio and Madison County at $276,671 and 0.042 represent more expensive, more liquid markets with better appreciation infrastructure but lower apparent yields. You choose Lawrence over its neighbors only if the entry price and potential value-add discount matter more to your strategy than yield clarity or resale liquidity, and only after you have verified local rents independently.