Franklin market analysis
Franklin County sits at a 3.52% cap rate and a gross rent-to-price ratio of 0.054, which places it firmly in appreciation territory rather than cash-flow country. At a $264,684 median purchase price with median rent of $1,196, the math is straightforward: a 20% down payment leaves you with a $1,387 monthly mortgage, and when you stack estimated expenses on top, the model projects negative $610 per month in cash flow and a cash-on-cash return of -12.02% at a 6.85% interest rate. That is not a rounding error, it is a structural feature of where this market currently sits on the pricing curve. The 4.89% year-over-year home price appreciation is what the bulls point to, and with an appreciation score of 86 out of 100, the data supports that case. But appreciation does not pay your mortgage this month.
The investor profile this market fits is narrow at current financing rates. A cash buyer or someone with enough equity to substantially reduce debt service could tolerate the thin yield while betting on continued price gains. The 73 affordability index suggests the market is not overheated in absolute terms, which historically supports price stability rather than runaway appreciation, but it also means you are not buying at a distressed entry point that compresses your losses. A value-add operator who can push rents meaningfully above the $1,196 median is a better candidate here than a straight buy-and-hold investor underwriting to market rents. The cash-flow score of 51 and stability score of 50 confirm this is a middle-of-the-road market on both axes, not a place where the numbers work passively.
The combined monthly tax and insurance burden runs $311, or $3,732 annually, based on Missouri's state-average effective property tax rate of 0.97% and an insurance rate of 0.44%. The tax flag is normal, meaning it is not an unusual headwind or tailwind relative to the national picture, but at $2,567 per year in property tax alone, it is a real line item in a market where cash flow is already negative before you add vacancy and maintenance. Investors should note that 0.97% is a state-average estimate per Tax Foundation 2024 data, and actual rates at the county or township level in Franklin County may differ, so pulling the specific assessor rate before closing is non-negotiable on any deal here.
The concentration risk worth flagging is geographic and economic. Franklin County has a population of 104,858, which is a secondary market by most definitions, and its overall score of 64 ranks it 273rd nationally out of 1,000 counties and 55th out of 113 in Missouri. Neither ranking suggests a top-tier destination market. Without a deep pool of diverse employers or a major university anchoring rental demand, a secondary market at a sub-4% cap rate carries meaningful occupancy risk if the local economy softens. The model does not provide employer or economic anchor data for Franklin County, so any assumptions about job base stability would need to come from your own due diligence rather than this dataset.
Compared to the neighboring counties in this dataset, Franklin looks expensive on a rent-to-price basis. Jackson County's gross yield of 6.98% and Jasper County's 6.61% both dwarf Franklin's 0.054, and at median prices of $237,642 and $213,708 respectively, both offer lower entry points. An investor chasing cash flow should look hard at Jackson or Jasper before committing to Franklin. Monroe County at $216,427 and the overall score leaders like Monroe at 65 are tighter comparisons on the score sheet, but Franklin's appreciation score of 86 is the one number that separates it from the peer group. If your thesis is price appreciation in a mid-Missouri suburban corridor and you have the capital structure to carry negative cash flow, Franklin makes a case. If your thesis requires the property to at least approach breakeven from day one, the neighbor counties with gross yields above 6.5% are where the arithmetic works better.
Scenario comparison
| Scenario | Purchase price | Monthly cash flow | Cap rate | Cash-on-cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
75% of median value-add or distressed | $198,513 | -$263/mo | 4.7% | -6.9% |
Median typical MLS deal | $264,684 | -$610/mo | 3.5% | -12.0% |
125% of median newer / premium | $330,854 | -$957/mo | 2.8% | -15.1% |
Price History
Median Home Price
Median Rent
Historical data from Zillow ZHVI/ZORI
Quick Investment Calculator
Purchase
Monthly Cash Flow
* Based on county median values. 35% expenses include taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, and property management. Actual results vary by property.
Score Breakdown
Based on 5.42% rent-to-price ratio. Higher ratios indicate stronger cash flow potential.
Based on 4.9% YoY price growth. Moderate growth (3-8%) scores highest.
Population data not available.
Based on price relative to estimated local incomes.
Scores are calculated using real Zillow home value and rent data, Census population data, and economic indicators. The weighted average produces the overall investment score. Markets with missing rent data use estimated values based on regional averages.
Investment Outlook
Strengths
- +Affordable relative to local incomes
- +Complete rent data available
Challenges
- -Below-average rent-to-price ratio (5.42%)
- -Negative cash flow at typical financing (-$610/mo)
- -Negative leverage (cap rate 3.5% < mortgage rate 6.9%)
Economic Indicators
Who this market fits
- +Patient holders willing to accept negative carry for equity gains
- +All-cash buyers: removing debt service flips the cap rate to actual yield
- −You need positive cash flow on day one at typical leverage
- −You can't tolerate negative leverage (cap rate below mortgage rate today)
Compare to Nearby Counties
The Bottom Line
Franklin County in Missouri scores 64/100, ranking #273 of 1,000 US counties (top 35%). At 20% down and current rates, a median-priced rental loses about $610/month; the 5.42% gross rent-to-price ratio doesn't survive debt service. The thesis here is appreciation, value-add, house hacking, or all-cash.