Jefferson County

Jefferson County prices at $291,892 median with $1,581 monthly rent produce a gross rent-to-price ratio of 6.5%, which lands it squarely in appreciation-leaning territory rather than pure cash-flow country. The 4.22% cap rate confirms that reading: you're not buying yield here, you're buying a market where home values grew 4.29% year-over-year and the appreciation score of 84 out of 100 reflects that trajectory. The leveraged math is harder to ignore. At 6.85% financing with 20% down, the model spits out negative $503 monthly cash flow and a cash-on-cash return of -8.99%. That is a meaningful deficit, not a rounding error, and any investor who needs the property to carry itself from day one should price that in carefully before committing.

That negative carry narrows the viable buyer pool significantly. This market suits an appreciation buyer who has the balance sheet to subsidize monthly shortfalls while waiting for equity to build, or a value-add operator who can force appreciation through renovation and push rents above the $1,581 median fast enough to close the gap. A pure cash-flow buyer has little business here at current prices and rates unless they can source off-market deals materially below the $291,892 median, which is always possible but cannot be assumed. The affordability index of 67 suggests the county is not stretched to extremes, which limits the downside scenario where prices crater due to affordability exhaustion, but it also means the market is not so cheap that rents offer easy coverage. The stability score of 50 is the one flag worth sitting with: it indicates neither a locked-in, low-turnover rental base nor the kind of institutional-grade predictability that lets you underwrite confidently through a soft patch.

No economic anchor data was provided for Jefferson County, so employer-level demand analysis is not available here. Investors should conduct their own diligence on the local job base before committing to a buy-and-hold thesis, particularly given the middling stability score.

On carry costs, the combined monthly tax and insurance burden runs $343 at Missouri's state-average effective tax rate of 0.97% and a 0.44% insurance rate. That $343 is already baked into the $554 estimated monthly expenses figure, but it's worth isolating because it represents the largest fixed cost outside the mortgage. The 0.97% rate carries a "normal" flag, meaning it is neither a tailwind you can lean on nor a penalty you need to hedge against; it is simply a cost to model accurately. As always, that rate is a state-average estimate, and your actual county or township rate may differ, so pull the Jefferson County assessor data before finalizing your underwrite.

The primary risk here is leverage sensitivity. A -8.99% cash-on-cash return means you are writing a check every month, and that deficit compounds if vacancy runs above expectations or if a capital expenditure hits in year one or two. The model does not provide vacancy statistics, so investors should research local vacancy conditions independently. The population of 226,984 suggests a real, functioning rental market rather than a thin one, but market depth alone does not protect against the carrying cost math when rates are elevated.

Compared to its neighbors, Jefferson sits at a higher price point than Monroe County ($216,427), DeKalb County ($228,527), and Saint Francois County ($186,017), while offering a similar 6.5% gross rent-to-price ratio. Saint Francois, for example, has a nearly identical ratio at 6.57% but at a median price of $186,017, meaning the absolute dollar deficit on a leveraged purchase would be smaller, and the cash-on-cash drag would likely be less severe. Cass County is priced higher at $326,634 with a slightly lower ratio of 6.31%, making Jefferson look more efficient than Cass on gross yield. All five neighbors land within two points of Jefferson's overall score of 66, so no single neighbor offers a dramatically better profile. The reason to choose Jefferson over Monroe, DeKalb, or Saint Francois is the appreciation score of 84, which is the differentiating number. If you believe the 4.29% annual price growth trajectory holds and you have the liquidity to absorb negative carry, Jefferson offers the more compelling equity-building story. If monthly cash flow cannot be negative in your model, Saint Francois at $186,017 is the logical starting point for that conversation.