Chouteau County

Chouteau County scores a cash flow rating of zero, which is the first and most important thing an investor needs to absorb before anything else. With a median home price of $321,854 and no cap rate or cash-on-cash return calculated in the model, the income side of this market simply does not pencil at current prices and a 6.85% mortgage rate. The affordability index of 61 confirms that buyers are stretched relative to local incomes, and the price-to-rent relationship implied by the data places Chouteau firmly on the appreciation end of the spectrum rather than the cash-flow end. The one number working in the county's favor is 11.45% year-over-year home price appreciation, which puts it in genuine growth territory and explains the overall score of 64 and the appreciation score of 76.

This market suits an appreciation buyer, not a cash-flow buyer or a value-add operator chasing yield. If your underwriting requires day-one positive cash flow at 80% LTV and 6.85% financing, Chouteau does not deliver it, and the data does not suggest otherwise. If instead you are willing to accept neutral or slightly negative cash flow in exchange for a market that posted double-digit price growth over the past year and carries an appreciation score of 76 out of 100, the thesis changes. The county ranks 273rd nationally out of 1,000 counties tracked, placing it in the 65th percentile overall, and 15th out of 56 Montana counties. That positioning suggests a market that outperforms most peers on price momentum without being in the frothiest tier.

No economic anchors are provided in the data, so the underlying employment base and rental demand drivers cannot be quantified here. What can be said is that Chouteau is a small county with a population of 5,897, which is a number that demands attention on its own. Thin population means thin rental demand, limited tenant selection, and extended vacancy between tenants, even if vacancy statistics are not available to cite directly. The stability score of 50 reflects this vulnerability: the market is not unstable in a distressed sense, but it carries the inherent fragility of a small rural economy where a single employer departure or demographic shift has an outsized impact.

On carry costs, the monthly tax and insurance figure of $325 is material when you are already operating with a cash flow score of zero. At a state-average effective property tax rate of 0.83%, the tax burden is flagged as normal, which means it is not an unusual drag relative to Montana peers, but the $2,671 in annual taxes and $1,223 in annual insurance still represent real line items that compress already-thin margins. That 0.83% is a state-average estimate per Tax Foundation 2024 data, and actual Chouteau County or township rates may differ, so confirm the county assessor's rate before finalizing any underwrite. The combined $325 per month does not create a unique burden by Montana standards, but in a market where the income column is already weak, it leaves almost no cushion.

The neighbor comparison clarifies exactly where Chouteau sits in the regional landscape. Valley County at $171,979 and Roosevelt County at $137,459 both carry lower prices but also lower overall scores of 64 and 62 respectively. An investor who prioritizes entry price and is willing to accept lower appreciation momentum could find better cash-flow dynamics in those two counties, particularly Roosevelt, where the price point is less than half of Chouteau's. Judith Basin County at $272,944 scores 65, marginally higher than Chouteau's 64, and does so at a meaningfully lower price, which likely implies a more attractive price-to-rent ratio. Powell County at $305,878 and a score of 64 is the closest comparable, priced roughly $16,000 below Chouteau with an identical overall score, making it worth a direct side-by-side income analysis. Sweet Grass County at $441,531 scores 63, lower than Chouteau on a higher price, which is the least compelling combination in the peer set. Choose Chouteau over its neighbors only if the 11.45% appreciation rate is the primary investment thesis and you are prepared to hold through periods of low or no rental income in a county of fewer than 6,000 people.