Judith Basin County

Judith Basin County scores a 65 overall, landing in the 68th percentile nationally and 13th out of 56 Montana counties. The appreciation score of 80 is the headline number here: median home prices sit at $272,944 with 3.15% year-over-year growth, which is a meaningful clip for a rural Montana county. The cash flow score, however, is 0, and the cap rate comes back at 0, which tells you the rental income math either doesn't close or is too thin to model reliably at scale. This is not a county where you buy a single-family home, run the numbers, and find a comfortable spread between rent and PITI. The price-to-rent dynamics place Judith Basin squarely on the appreciation end of the spectrum, with essentially no cash flow thesis available at a $272,944 median and a 6.85% rate environment.

The investor this market suits is not a yield buyer. If you're underwriting to a cap rate or a cash-on-cash return, Judith Basin won't clear your hurdles, and the data doesn't pretend otherwise. The 80 appreciation score makes a case for a long-horizon land or residential hold, someone betting on Montana's continued inbound migration and price appreciation continuing at or above 3% annually. The affordability index of 60 and median household income of $58,750 suggest that local buyers are not flush, which limits organic price support from within the county but doesn't necessarily cap appreciation driven by out-of-state demand, a dynamic common across rural Montana. Value-add operators should also think carefully here: a population of 2,039 means the renter pool is extremely small, and any repositioning strategy depends on finding a buyer or tenant in a market with very limited depth.

On carry costs, the tax and insurance picture is manageable but not a standout tailwind. The state-average effective property tax rate of 0.83% falls in the normal range, and combined with an insurance rate of 0.38%, the blended monthly tax-and-insurance load on a $272,944 purchase comes to approximately $275. That's not a line item that distorts the underwrite in either direction, though keep in mind this is a state-average estimate and actual Judith Basin county and township rates may differ meaningfully. With a $54,589 down payment and a 6.85% rate, the monthly mortgage alone is the dominant carry cost, and even at $275 per month in taxes and insurance the total housing expense will outpace realistic rural Montana rents.

The stability score of 50 reflects what is structurally true about a 2,039-person agricultural county: concentration risk is high by definition. There is no economic anchor data provided for this county, which itself says something. Markets with diverse institutional employers, hospitals, universities, or military bases typically surface that data readily. Judith Basin's economy is almost certainly dominated by agriculture, which means rental demand is tied to a narrow sector subject to commodity cycles, weather, and farm consolidation trends. A single large employer or sector contraction can move vacancy rates materially in a market this small. That's not a reason to avoid the county entirely, but it should calibrate your underwriting assumptions toward conservative vacancy and longer lease-up timelines.

Comparing Judith Basin to its neighbors clarifies where it sits. Valley County at $171,979 median and a 64 overall score is considerably cheaper and nearly as well-rated, which means if cash flow or entry price is your constraint, Valley likely pencils better. Powder River County at $263,390 and a 66 score is slightly cheaper than Judith Basin with a marginally better overall score, making it a direct competitor worth underwriting side by side. Teton County at $333,202 and a 67 score is pricier with a better overall rating, suggesting more established demand dynamics that may justify the premium. Sweet Grass County at $441,531 is the outlier on price and scores the lowest at 63, which is a warning sign that price appreciation has outrun fundamentals there. Judith Basin sits in the middle of this peer group on both price and score. You'd choose it over neighbors primarily if you have a specific view on its appreciation trajectory relative to entry cost, or if you have local knowledge of a particular asset or submarket that the county-level data can't capture. On the numbers alone, Powder River County's slight price discount at a comparable or better score makes it worth a close look before committing to Judith Basin.