Sullivan County

Sullivan County prices out at a gross rent multiplier that translates to a 0.55% rent-to-price ratio monthly, or 6.65% annualized, which sounds decent until you run the full stack. The modeled cap rate lands at 3.61%, and with a 6.85% mortgage the leverage math is immediately hostile: a 20% down payment produces a cash-on-cash return of -11.67% and estimated monthly cash flow of -$860. That number is not a rounding error or a conservative assumption artifact, it reflects what happens when debt service of $2,016 per month sits on top of $622 in operating expenses against $1,778 in median rent. The appreciation score of 83 out of 100 and a year-over-year price gain of 3.94% tell you where the real thesis lives: this is an appreciation-forward market, not a cash-flow market, and underwriting it as the latter will produce losses.

That profile makes Sullivan County a specific tool for a specific investor. Appreciation buyers who can tolerate negative carry, either through cross-collateralization, a larger down payment that shrinks the mortgage, or a portfolio-level cash flow offset, will find a market ranked 3rd out of 10 New Hampshire counties with a price point of $384,641 that is meaningfully below Grafton ($413,099), Merrimack ($470,918), and Strafford ($485,977). An investor who needs cash flow from day one should not be here at current financing rates. A value-add operator has a narrower path: forced appreciation through renovation can work if acquisition is below median, but the operating math still has to absorb the carry costs before stabilization. The affordability index of 48 and an overall score of 59 (49th national percentile) confirm this is a middle-of-the-road market, not a bargain bin and not a top-tier performer.

Property tax is the single biggest line item to stress-test before you underwrite anything in Sullivan County. New Hampshire's state-average effective rate is 2.18%, which is very high by any national standard, and the Tax Foundation 2024 data underlying that figure is a state average, meaning your actual county or township rate may differ, potentially in either direction. At 2.18% on a $384,641 purchase, annual property tax runs $8,385, or $699 per month. Add insurance at 0.23% ($885 annually, $74 per month) and the combined tax-and-insurance load is $773 per month before you touch mortgage principal, interest, repairs, vacancy, or management. That $773 figure alone consumes 43% of the $1,778 median rent. Any investor who soft-pencils taxes in New Hampshire or plugs in a national average is going to be materially wrong, and that error compounds fast on a negative cash flow property.

Sullivan County's stability score of 50 and population of 43,356 flag the concentration risk built into a small, rural New England county. A market this size has limited tenant pool depth, and any single large employer contraction or demographic outflow hits vacancy rates quickly. No economic anchor data was provided, so specific employer concentration cannot be assessed here, but the county's size alone means an investor should understand the local employment base before committing capital. The 3.94% annual price appreciation is real but needs context: small-county appreciation numbers can be driven by a thin transaction volume where a handful of sales move the median, rather than the broad demand pressure you see in a metro with thousands of annual transactions.

Against its neighbors, Sullivan offers the second-lowest entry price of the five comparables, behind only Coos County at $258,134. Coos scores 57 overall versus Sullivan's 59, but Coos has no rent data provided in this dataset, making a full cash-flow comparison impossible. Cheshire County at $372,426 carries a rent-to-price ratio of 0.0587 versus Sullivan's 0.0555, and an overall score of 62, making Cheshire the more cash-flow-efficient option at a slightly lower price point. Grafton at $413,099 scores 60 overall with a rent-to-price ratio of 0.0594, the highest of the group, which means it produces more rent per dollar of asset even at higher purchase prices. Merrimack and Strafford both score 56, carry the highest price tags, and compress rent-to-price ratios below Sullivan's, so they offer neither the cash-flow edge nor the entry-price advantage. The case for choosing Sullivan over Cheshire or Grafton comes down to price: if an investor is betting on appreciation and wants the lowest absolute capital at risk in a New Hampshire market with reasonable rent coverage, Sullivan is the entry point. If cash-flow efficiency matters even marginally, Cheshire's ratio of 0.0587 on a $372,426 median makes it the cleaner underwrite.