Burlington County

Burlington County sits at a gross rent-to-price ratio of 0.0649, which annualizes to about 7.8% gross yield before you touch expenses. That sounds workable until you run the full stack: at a 6.85% rate on an 80% LTV loan, monthly mortgage on the median $418,637 purchase comes to $2,195, and estimated expenses add another $792, putting total monthly carry at roughly $2,987 against $2,264 in median rent. The model spits out negative $723 per month cash-on-cash, and a cash-on-cash return of negative 9.01%. The cap rate of 4.22% is the more honest lens here, since it strips financing, and 4.22% at least tells you the asset generates some income relative to value. But with the 10-year Treasury still elevated, a 4.22% cap rate offers thin spread, and the current rate environment is doing real damage to levered returns. Appreciation has been 2.25% year-over-year, modest but positive. Burlington scores 72 on appreciation and 65 on cash flow relative to the tool's universe, which places it squarely in the middle of the cash-flow-versus-appreciation spectrum, leaning slightly toward appreciation.

The investor this market suits is not a cash-flow buyer running today's numbers at 20% down and 6.85% financing. The math simply does not clear. Where Burlington becomes interesting is for an appreciation buyer with a longer hold horizon, someone who can absorb negative carry in the early years betting that 2.25% annual price growth compounds meaningfully on a $419,000 basis, or who expects rate relief to eventually improve the refinance picture. A value-add operator who can buy below median, force equity through renovation, and push rents above the $2,264 median has a path, but the margin for error is thin given carry costs. The affordability index of 40 and overall score of 58, ranking 426th out of 1,000 counties nationally (46th percentile), suggest this is not a screaming opportunity but a serviceable, mid-tier market for patient capital.

On the economic context, no specific employer anchors were provided in the data, so the demand-side story cannot be anchored to named institutions here. What the population figure of 461,853 does tell you is that this is a meaningful-sized county, large enough to support diverse rental demand across multiple sub-markets and property types, which reduces some concentration risk relative to smaller, single-employer-dependent counties.

The tax and insurance picture is where Burlington gets genuinely punishing and deserves its own line on every underwrite. New Jersey's state-average effective property tax rate is 2.49%, and the tool flags it as very high, which is an understatement in the national context. On the median purchase price, that's $10,424 in annual property taxes alone, or $869 per month. Add $73 monthly for insurance at 0.21% and you're at $942 per month in tax and insurance before you touch principal, interest, vacancy, repairs, or management. That $942 figure is embedded in the $792 estimated expenses figure and the negative cash flow outcome. Be aware that the 2.49% figure is a state-average estimate from Tax Foundation 2024 data; actual Burlington County township rates vary and could be higher or lower depending on municipality. Run the specific parcel's tax card before you underwrite anything here.

The primary risk in Burlington is structural: New Jersey's tax burden is a permanent headwind, not a cyclical one. High property taxes compress cap rates because they consume a disproportionate share of gross income relative to lower-tax states, and they also suppress affordability for owner-occupants, which can actually support rental demand while simultaneously making exit multiples lower than they'd be elsewhere. There is no vacancy or crime data provided to layer in, so those risks cannot be quantified here.

Against its neighbors, Burlington's 0.0649 rent-to-price ratio is the second-best among the five counties listed. Only Mercer County edges it out at 0.0699, and Mercer also carries a slightly higher overall score of 60 versus Burlington's 58. Middlesex County (0.0538), Morris County (0.0502), and Hunterdon County (0.0493) all have materially worse rent-to-price ratios and higher median prices, meaning leverage works even harder against you there. Ocean County (0.0622) comes close to Burlington but with a $527,692 median price requiring more capital. The case for Burlington over its neighbors is primarily one of entry price and relative yield. If you are choosing among New Jersey counties and cash flow is at least part of the mandate, Burlington gives you the most favorable rent-to-price entry after Mercer. If you are willing to accept the same overall score with slightly better rent dynamics and lower absolute capital requirements than Middlesex, Morris, or Hunterdon, Burlington is the more capital-efficient choice, with the shared understanding that no county in this group clears cleanly on levered cash flow at today's rates.