Hudson County

Hudson County prices out at a gross rent multiplier of roughly 175 and a rent-to-price ratio of 0.057, placing it squarely in appreciation territory rather than cash-flow territory. The modeled cap rate sits at 3.7%, and at a 6.85% financing rate, the spread between those two numbers tells the whole story: you are borrowing at nearly double your unlevered yield. The result is a projected cash-on-cash return of negative 11.28% and monthly cash flow of negative $1,375 on a $636,059 purchase with 20% down, a $3,334 mortgage, and $1,055 in estimated operating expenses. The appreciation score of 65 outpaces the cash-flow score of 55, and 1.47% year-over-year home price growth confirms the market is moving, but not at a pace that rescues the carry. Hudson ranks 634th out of 1,000 counties nationally (19th percentile) and 18th out of 21 New Jersey counties, an affordability index of 15 out of 100 making clear that this is one of the most expensive entry points in the state.

The buyer this market suits is not a yield-first cash-flow investor. The numbers above make that unambiguous. The appreciation buyer, specifically one with a long hold horizon and conviction on the New York metropolitan adjacency thesis, is the logical candidate. Median rent of $3,014 is high in absolute terms and slightly offsets the carry pain, but with a negative cash-on-cash of over 11%, you need price appreciation averaging well above 1.47% annually to justify the position. A value-add operator hunting for forced appreciation through renovation could compress that negative carry if rents are being pushed materially above median on repositioned units, but nothing in the base data suggests Hudson is a discount-entry value-add market; at $636,059 median, you are paying for a finished product.

The property tax situation deserves its own line in your underwriting, and it is the single biggest number on this cost stack outside the mortgage itself. Using the state-average effective rate of 2.49% (a Tax Foundation 2024 estimate; your actual county or township rate will differ and should be confirmed at the municipal level), annual property tax on the median purchase comes to approximately $15,838. Combined with $1,336 in estimated annual insurance, the monthly tax-and-insurance load is $1,431. That is not a rounding error, it is 43% of the total monthly mortgage payment of $3,334. New Jersey's property tax burden is routinely cited as the highest in the country, and at 2.49% state-average the rate is not only high in absolute terms but functions as a structural floor on expenses that does not compress even if market rents soften. Any sensitivity analysis on this deal needs to stress-test the tax line specifically.

Turning to the neighboring counties, Hudson's rent-to-price ratio of 0.057 is actually the highest among the five comparables provided, which is counterintuitive given how negative the cash flow still runs. Essex County comes in at a ratio of 0.044 on a nearly identical median price of $635,686 with rent of only $2,305, making it a worse cash-flow proposition despite similar acquisition cost. Bergen County, at $735,505 and a ratio of 0.045, is both more expensive and lower-yielding on a rent-to-price basis. Monmouth County at $733,160 and 0.046 faces the same problem. Union County at $614,241 and 0.051, and Passaic County at $574,942 and 0.048, both offer lower entry prices, and Passaic's lower price point reduces absolute dollar exposure even if the ratio is not as favorable as Hudson's. Overall scores are tight across all five counties, ranging from 47 to 52, with Hudson at 48 sitting near the bottom of that cluster.

Choose Hudson over its neighbors only if your thesis is explicitly anchored to New York City commuter demand and you believe median rents in Jersey City or surrounding submarkets will outperform the county median, or if you are acquiring a specific asset with rents already running above that $3,014 figure. Passaic and Union offer lower absolute price points with modestly lower rent-to-price ratios, meaning the cash flow deficit is smaller even if it remains negative, and they carry less concentration risk around a single demand driver. Hudson's concentrated population of 712,029 in a geographically small county with a heavy reliance on NYC employment and commuter appeal is both its core value proposition and its primary risk: any sustained shift in remote work adoption, transit disruption, or relative affordability in outer boroughs directly pressures the rental demand that justifies a 3.7% cap rate at this price level.