Hoke market analysis
Hoke County's gross rent-to-price ratio sits at 7.36%, which is respectable on paper and earns it a cash-flow score of 74 out of 100. The cap rate comes in at 4.78%, which is the number that actually matters once you layer in expenses. Run the standard financing at 6.85% on a 20% down purchase of $281,415 and the monthly mortgage lands at $1,475. Add estimated expenses of $604 and you're looking at negative $354 per month in cash flow, a cash-on-cash return of -6.56%. The appreciation story offers little rescue: year-over-year home price growth is essentially flat at 0.11%. Hoke sits squarely in the middle ground, scoring 51 on appreciation and 50 on stability, which tells you this is not a market that will bail out a weak deal through price gains. You need to buy right here, not average.
The cash-flow score of 74 suggests Hoke is better positioned than many markets for the income-oriented buyer, but the modeled deal above is negative at current rates, which means the cash-flow buyer needs either a meaningful discount to list, seller concessions, or a below-market rate assumption to make numbers work. The appreciation buyer has no compelling case: 0.11% annual price growth and a stability score of 50 do not support a speculative hold thesis. Where Hoke makes more sense is for the value-add operator who can acquire distressed assets below the $281,414 median, force equity through renovation, and reposition rents closer to or above the $1,725 median, which at 7.36% implied yield gives you a workable spread. The affordability index of 70 and median price below $285,000 mean there is enough ceiling to exit if you need to, without chasing a top-of-market entry.
Hoke County borders Fort Liberty, one of the largest U.S. Army installations in the world, and that single anchor defines the rental demand profile more than any other variable. Military households create a reliable, high-turnover tenant base with steady income and BAH-driven rent floors. Proximity to a major installation also provides insulation from the kind of demand erosion that hits purely private-sector dependent markets during downturns, though it introduces its own concentration risk if mission priorities or troop levels shift. The county's overall score of 61 and state rank of 20 out of 100 reflect a market that benefits from this anchor without fully converting it into investor returns, largely because prices have followed demand up without rents keeping proportional pace under conventional financing.
The combined monthly tax and insurance figure here is $263, based on a state-average effective property tax rate of 0.84% and an insurance rate of 0.28%. The note in the underlying data is worth respecting: this is a state-average estimate from Tax Foundation 2024 and actual county and township rates in Hoke may differ, so pull the actual county rate before finalizing your underwrite. The 0.84% rate is classified as normal, meaning it is neither a meaningful tailwind nor a drag relative to national norms. In the context of a deal already running negative $354 monthly, the $263 in taxes and insurance is not the culprit, but it is a real line item that has to be stress-tested against any rent vacancy or repair scenarios.
The concentration risk here is real and stems directly from the Fort Liberty dependence. A significant reduction in troop deployment or base realignment and closure process activity would compress rental demand faster in Hoke than it would in a more diversified economy. With a population of only 52,612, the county has limited depth in private-sector employment to absorb that kind of shock. There is no data provided on vacancy or regulatory risk, so no further claims can be made on those dimensions.
Compared to its neighbor group, Hoke holds up reasonably well on yield but not on price efficiency. Cumberland County, which also borders Fort Liberty, carries a median price of $227,591 against a median rent of $1,421.66 and a rent-to-price ratio of 7.50%, slightly better than Hoke's 7.36%, at a meaningfully lower entry price. Both counties score 61 overall, which makes Cumberland the more compelling choice for an investor who wants the same Fort Liberty demand story with a lower basis and fractionally better gross yield. Cherokee County scores 62 overall with a $274,117 median price but a weaker rent-to-price ratio of 7.11%, so it does not justify its premium over Hoke. Gaston County is the most expensive neighbor at $291,814 with the worst gross yield of the group at 6.80%, and a score of 60, making it the least attractive option on fundamentals. Wilson County scores 59 with a $216,344 median but a rent-to-price ratio of only 7.00%, which suggests rents have not kept up with the relatively lower price base. Choose Hoke over its neighbors specifically when you can source deals below median that still capture the Fort Liberty rental pool, or when Cumberland inventory is thin and you need a comparable market with similar demand drivers at a slightly higher price.
Scenario comparison
| Scenario | Purchase price | Monthly cash flow | Cap rate | Cash-on-cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
75% of median value-add or distressed | $211,061 | +$15/mo | 6.4% | +0.4% |
Median typical MLS deal | $281,415 | -$354/mo | 4.8% | -6.6% |
125% of median newer / premium | $351,769 | -$722/mo | 3.8% | -10.7% |
Price History
Median Home Price
Median Rent
Historical data from Zillow ZHVI/ZORI
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Purchase
Monthly Cash Flow
* Based on county median values. 35% expenses include taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, and property management. Actual results vary by property.
Score Breakdown
Based on 7.36% rent-to-price ratio. Higher ratios indicate stronger cash flow potential.
Based on 0.1% YoY price growth. Moderate growth (3-8%) scores highest.
Population data not available.
Based on price relative to estimated local incomes.
Scores are calculated using real Zillow home value and rent data, Census population data, and economic indicators. The weighted average produces the overall investment score. Markets with missing rent data use estimated values based on regional averages.
Investment Outlook
Strengths
- +Above-average rent-to-price ratio (7.36%)
- +Affordable relative to local incomes
- +Complete rent data available
Challenges
- -Negative cash flow at typical financing (-$354/mo)
- -Negative leverage (cap rate 4.8% < mortgage rate 6.9%)
Economic Indicators
Who this market fits
- +All-cash buyers: removing debt service flips the cap rate to actual yield
- +Value-add operators who can buy below median and force rent up
- −You need positive cash flow on day one at typical leverage
- −You can't tolerate negative leverage (cap rate below mortgage rate today)
Compare to Nearby Counties
The Bottom Line
Hoke County in North Carolina scores 61/100, ranking #344 of 1,000 US counties (top 44%). At 20% down and current rates, a median-priced rental loses about $354/month; the 7.36% gross rent-to-price ratio doesn't survive debt service. The thesis here is appreciation, value-add, house hacking, or all-cash.