Ashtabula County

Ashtabula County's gross rent-to-price ratio sits at 7.59%, which places it firmly in cash-flow territory on paper, but the actual underwriting tells a more complicated story. At a $182,582 purchase price with 20% down and a 6.85% rate, the modeled monthly mortgage of $957 plus $404 in estimated expenses produces a negative cash flow of $206 per month against $1,154 in median rent. The cap rate of 4.93% is respectable for a market at this price point and reflects genuine yield compression from the 6.56% year-over-year home price appreciation, which also drives an appreciation score of 91 out of 100 and a national percentile rank of 95th out of 1,000 counties. The honest read: this is a market caught between two investment theses. The rent-to-price ratio is high enough to attract cash-flow buyers, but current financing costs are eating that yield, making the appreciating equity story the more credible near-term driver.

That appreciation score of 91 and the affordability index of 91 tell you something useful in combination. Prices are moving at 6.56% annually from a median base of $182,582, which means the dollar gains are still modest enough that first-time buyers and renters haven't been priced out, yet appreciation is fast enough to build equity meaningfully over a five-to-ten year hold. The stability score of 50, however, is a flag. This is not a set-it-and-forget-it market. Vacancy risk, tenant quality, and local economic cycles will matter here more than in a market with a higher stability score. The profile fits an investor who can manage assets actively, is comfortable with a slightly longer path to cash-flow breakeven as rates eventually ease, or who can buy below median through value-add work to manufacture the spread that the standard acquisition doesn't deliver at 6.85%.

The tax and insurance carry deserves its own line on your underwrite. Ohio's state-average effective property tax rate is 1.56%, which the Tax Foundation classifies as high, and at that rate Ashtabula generates an estimated $2,848 in annual property tax on this asset, or roughly $237 per month. Combined with $35 per month in insurance ($420 annually at a 0.23% rate), you're looking at $272 per month in tax and insurance alone before you touch mortgage principal, interest, maintenance, or vacancy reserves. That $272 figure is baked into the $404 estimated expense total cited above, but it's worth isolating because it's the largest non-mortgage fixed cost and it doesn't compress when rents soften. Use the 1.56% as a planning floor; actual county and township millage rates in Ashtabula may differ, so pull the county auditor's current effective rates before closing.

The stability score of 50 is the primary risk to underwrite around. A market at this income level with rapid price appreciation but middling stability is typically one where the renter base is economically sensitive to job disruptions. Concentration in any single employer or sector would amplify that. No economic anchor data was provided for this county, so no specific employer analysis can be offered, but the stability score alone justifies conservative vacancy assumptions, twelve months of reserves rather than six, and a bias toward properties that can attract multiple tenant income profiles.

Against its neighbors, Ashtabula holds its own on overall score (76) while offering the highest gross rent-to-price ratio in this peer set. Lucas County comes in at 7.83% rent-to-price with a $169,370 median and an overall score of 75; Trumbull County leads the group at 7.99% rent-to-price with a $160,493 median and a 77 overall score. Trumbull's lower price point and slightly better rent ratio make it the stronger cash-flow target if maximizing current yield is the priority. Scioto County at $135,788 median is the cheapest entry in the group, also scoring 76, which could appeal to a capital-constrained buyer. Ashtabula's case over these neighbors rests on its appreciation score of 91, which is the highest figure visible in this dataset, and its affordability score of 91. If you're running a five-plus year hold and believe prices will continue to move, Ashtabula's trajectory justifies the premium over Trumbull or Scioto. If you need day-one cash flow and are indifferent to appreciation, Trumbull at 7.99% rent-to-price and a lower basis is the cleaner choice.