Crawford County

Crawford County prices out at a median $161,149 with median rent of $892.50, producing a gross rent-to-price ratio of 6.65%. That puts it solidly in the cash-flow-oriented tier of Ohio markets, though the model underwrite tells a more complicated story. At a 4.32% cap rate and with a 6.85% financing cost, the levered math doesn't close: the base-case estimate shows negative $264 per month in cash flow and a cash-on-cash return of -8.55% on a 20% down payment. The spread between cap rate and cost of capital is roughly 250 basis points underwater, which is the core tension this market presents. Appreciation has been real, 4.12% year-over-year, and the county scores 83 out of 100 on appreciation, ranking 113th nationally out of 1,000 counties (86th percentile). So Crawford sits on the appreciation side of the spectrum more than its low price point might suggest, which is an unusual combination for a rural Ohio county at this price level.

The ideal buyer here is not a cash-flow-first operator running conventional financing at today's rates. With leveraged returns deeply negative under standard assumptions, this market rewards either an all-cash or low-leverage buyer who can hold for price appreciation, or a value-add operator who can push rents meaningfully above the $892.50 median. An affordability index of 95 and a median price under $165,000 mean there is a large pool of renters who can afford market rents, and acquisition costs are low enough that a value-add play, buying distressed and forcing appreciation, is cheaper to execute here than in most Ohio metros. A buyer targeting the appreciation score of 83 needs patience and a balance sheet that can carry the negative carry at current rates, or enough equity from purchase discount to offset it.

The stability score of 50 is the number that demands attention before any of the above. It signals meaningful risk around rental demand consistency, population trends, or economic concentration. Crawford County has a population of 41,861, which is small enough that any single employer exit or demographic shift moves the needle. Without additional economic anchor data provided, the stability flag is simply a risk you carry into the underwrite with eyes open.

The $240 per month in combined taxes and insurance is a line item that meaningfully shapes the cash-flow picture and deserves its own row on your model. At a state-average effective property tax rate of 1.56%, Ohio's rate qualifies as high, and the Tax Foundation data used here is a state-average estimate, so actual Crawford County or township rates may differ, potentially materially. The $2,514 annual tax burden on a $161,149 asset is not punishing in absolute dollars, but at this rent level ($892.50/month gross), it represents roughly 23% of gross rent before you touch mortgage, vacancy, maintenance, or management. That ratio is tight. Investors accustomed to low-tax Sun Belt markets should recalibrate their pro forma templates before running numbers here.

The concentration risk embedded in a stability score of 50 for a county of 41,861 is real. If one or two major employers or one industry segment weakens, vacancy can move quickly in a market this size. The data does not support any specific vacancy or crime claim, but the size and stability score together argue for a conservative vacancy assumption in your underwrite, not the 5% default that gets used in markets with deeper tenant pools.

Against its neighbors, Crawford's 6.65% gross yield lags Ashtabula (7.06%), Cuyahoga (7.83%), Montgomery (7.64%), Belmont (7.24%), and Erie (7.38%), yet its overall score of 72 ties Ashtabula and trails Belmont (74) and the two metro counties. Cuyahoga and Montgomery carry median prices of $211,436 and $195,315 respectively, which require substantially more capital but deliver meaningfully better yield ratios and presumably deeper, more liquid tenant markets. Belmont County at $130,448 median and a 7.24% yield ratio offers a lower entry point with better leveraged yield, and its overall score of 74 edges Crawford out. Crawford makes the most sense over these alternatives when your thesis is specifically price appreciation in a low-basis Ohio asset, where you believe the 4.12% annual gain can compound over a five-plus year hold while you wait for rates to allow a refinance into positive cash flow. If your primary objective is yield from day one, the neighbor data suggests Cuyahoga, Montgomery, or Ashtabula deliver more rental income per dollar deployed, at the cost of higher entry prices.