Greene County

Greene County sits at a gross rent-to-price ratio of 0.0644, which translates to an annualized gross yield of roughly 6.4%. That sounds workable until you model it out. At a $300,208 purchase price with 20% down and a 6.85% rate, the monthly mortgage alone runs $1,574. Median rent comes in at $1,610, leaving just $36 to cover all operating costs before the property earns a dollar. The modeled cash flow is negative $528 per month, a cash-on-cash return of -9.18%, and a cap rate of 4.18%. That cap rate is low enough to be unremarkable in any market but becomes a real problem in a rate environment where your financing cost exceeds it. Where Greene scores well is appreciation: a 4.18% cap rate paired with 3.19% year-over-year price growth and an appreciation score of 81 out of 100 tells you the market is pricing in future upside, not current income. This is not a cash-flow market by the numbers.

The investor this market suits is someone who can stomach negative carry in the near term in exchange for price appreciation, or someone who can manufacture equity through value-add to force the numbers into shape. An affordability index of 66 and an overall score of 65 out of 100, landing at the 68th national percentile, suggests this is a market that more buyers want than the median US county, which keeps a floor under prices but also keeps cap rates compressed. A cash-flow buyer running standard financing at current rates will not find the deal they need here at median price points. A value-add operator who can acquire below median, add rentable square footage, or reposition a distressed asset to push rents above $1,610 can close some of that gap, but even then the $1,574 mortgage payment is a tough hurdle. The appreciation buyer, particularly one with longer hold horizons or who can bring significant equity to lower the debt service, is the most natural fit.

Greene County's economic profile adds context to why demand stays elevated and prices hold. Wright-Patterson Air Force Base sits within the county and acts as a durable employment anchor, providing the kind of federal-payroll stability that insulates rental demand from private-sector cycles. The base supports thousands of direct military and civilian jobs plus a contractor ecosystem that keeps household formation relatively steady. Cedarville University and Antioch College add a modest student-housing component. That mix, federal employment plus institutional presence, explains why the stability score of 50 out of 100 may understate the actual floor on demand even if it reflects volatility in broader metrics. Tenants with federal paychecks or research jobs don't disappear overnight, which matters for an investor underwriting a five- to ten-year hold.

On carry costs, the tax and insurance picture deserves direct attention before you finalize any underwrite. Ohio's state-average effective property tax rate is 1.56%, which the data flags as high, and at a $300,208 purchase price that produces an estimated $4,683 in annual property tax. Combined with $690 in estimated annual insurance, you're looking at $448 per month in tax and insurance alone, before mortgage, maintenance, management, or vacancy. At 1.56%, the rate is high enough to deserve its own line on your pro forma, not a rounding assumption buried in an expenses bucket. Keep in mind this is a state-average effective rate from Tax Foundation 2024 data; your actual Greene County or township levy could be higher or lower, so verify the millage for any specific parcel before closing. That $448 monthly figure is a real drag in a market where gross rent is only $1,610.

The concentration risk worth noting here is the degree to which Wright-Patterson anchors local demand. That's a feature for stability, but a base realignment or closure would be a low-probability, high-impact event for anyone holding a portfolio concentrated in this submarket. Beyond that, the data doesn't support specific claims about vacancy rates or regulatory environment, so those should be verified independently through local property managers and municipal sources.

Compared to the neighboring counties in the dataset, Greene's rent-to-price ratio of 0.0644 beats both Butler (0.0597) and Clermont (0.0582), meaning you get more rent per dollar of purchase price here than in either of those markets, even if the absolute cash flow is still negative. Hamilton County actually posts a better ratio at 0.0694 with a lower median price of $262,214, making it the stronger pure cash-flow argument among the neighbors if you're willing to take on Cincinnati urban exposure. Columbiana County is the outlier: median home price of $153,705, rent-to-price of 0.0653, and an overall score of 64 suggest it's the closest pure cash-flow alternative, but at a very different price point, demand profile, and presumably much lower appreciation ceiling. Geauga County carries a higher median price of $363,108 and a slightly lower ratio at 0.0638 for a higher overall score of 67, but you're paying more for marginally similar income metrics. Choose Greene over its neighbors when you want the federal employment anchor and the appreciation trajectory, have the balance sheet to carry negative cash flow in the short term, and believe rent growth will close the gap over a multi-year hold. If positive cash flow from day one is non-negotiable, Hamilton or Columbiana deserve the first look.