Wayne market analysis
Wayne County sits at a gross rent-to-price ratio of 6.43%, which places it on the lower end of what most cash-flow investors want to see, typically expecting something closer to 7% or higher before financing costs start eating the deal alive. The model underwrite confirms the math: at a $264,392 purchase price with 20% down and a 6.85% rate, the monthly mortgage runs $1,386 against $1,416 in median rent, leaving almost nothing for expenses before you even get to them. Factor in $496 in estimated monthly expenses and the modeled cash flow lands at negative $466 per month, a cash-on-cash return of -9.2%. The cap rate of 4.18% tells a cleaner story on an unlevered basis, but at current financing rates that cap rate and cost of debt are working against each other. Wayne scores 64 on cash flow and 82 on appreciation, which tells you exactly where this market sits: it's an appreciation-oriented market dressed in Midwest clothing, not the cash-flow machine that the rural Ohio label might imply. Home prices are up 3.77% year over year, which is moderate but meaningful for a market at this price point.
This market suits an appreciation buyer or a patient buy-and-hold investor with a long time horizon and the balance sheet to carry short-term negative cash flow. The 82 appreciation score and 3.77% YoY price growth suggest the market has real price momentum at a median of $264,392, which remains affordable relative to national comparisons (affordability index of 73). An investor who can bring a larger down payment or wait for interest rates to compress will find the underlying rent-to-price ratio improves the carry story materially. A value-add operator who can push rents above the $1,416 median, even by $150 to $200, starts to close the gap on cash flow. A pure cash-flow buyer looking for day-one positive returns at current rates will have a hard time making the numbers work without either a below-market acquisition or significant rent upside.
The tax and insurance burden deserves its own line on your underwrite. The combined monthly tax and insurance load on a median-priced property is $394, which is not a rounding error; it represents 27% of the $1,416 median rent before you pay a dollar of mortgage. The state-average effective property tax rate of 1.56% is high enough to flag as a real underwriting consideration, producing an estimated $4,125 in annual property taxes on a $264,392 purchase. Keep in mind this is a state-average estimate from Tax Foundation 2024 data, and actual county and township rates in Wayne County may differ, so confirm the specific parcel rate before closing. At 6.85% financing, a 1.56% tax load has a compounding drag on returns that buyers coming from lower-tax states will find jarring.
Wayne County's overall score of 67 and a stability score of 50 warrant attention. The stability score at the midpoint of the range suggests the market is neither a fortress nor fragile, but it does mean an investor should stress-test vacancy scenarios and avoid assuming the appreciation trajectory is guaranteed. No economic anchor data was provided for this county, so employer concentration and the depth of the local job market cannot be assessed from the available data; any investor conducting serious due diligence should independently verify employment diversity before committing.
Compared to its neighbors, Wayne County presents a specific trade-off. Hancock County offers a meaningfully higher rent-to-price ratio of 6.85% against a lower median price of $229,447, making it the more cash-flow-oriented alternative in this peer group. Hamilton County comes in at 6.94% rent-to-price with a comparable median price of $262,214 and a slightly higher median rent of $1,516, putting it marginally ahead of Wayne on raw rental yield while carrying a slightly lower overall score of 66. Tuscarawas County is the cheapest entry point at $203,609, but its rent-to-price ratio of 5.30% is the worst in the group, suggesting low absolute rents that don't scale with the discount. Geauga County is the most expensive at $363,108, with a similar rent-to-price ratio to Wayne at 6.38%, and the same overall score of 67; there is no yield advantage to justify the higher capital outlay unless you have a specific thesis on Geauga appreciation. Choose Wayne over its neighbors if you believe in its 3.77% price growth trajectory, have tolerance for carrying costs, and want a mid-sized Ohio market with a higher affordability index than Geauga at a price point similar to Miami and Hamilton counties. Choose Hancock or Hamilton if cash-flow efficiency is the priority.
Scenario comparison
| Scenario | Purchase price | Monthly cash flow | Cap rate | Cash-on-cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
75% of median value-add or distressed | $198,294 | -$119/mo | 5.6% | -3.1% |
Median typical MLS deal | $264,392 | -$466/mo | 4.2% | -9.2% |
125% of median newer / premium | $330,490 | -$812/mo | 3.3% | -12.8% |
Price History
Median Home Price
Median Rent
Historical data from Zillow ZHVI/ZORI
Quick Investment Calculator
Purchase
Monthly Cash Flow
* Based on county median values. 35% expenses include taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, and property management. Actual results vary by property.
Score Breakdown
Based on 6.43% rent-to-price ratio. Higher ratios indicate stronger cash flow potential.
Based on 3.8% YoY price growth. Moderate growth (3-8%) scores highest.
Population data not available.
Based on price relative to estimated local incomes.
Scores are calculated using real Zillow home value and rent data, Census population data, and economic indicators. The weighted average produces the overall investment score. Markets with missing rent data use estimated values based on regional averages.
Investment Outlook
Strengths
- +Affordable relative to local incomes
- +Complete rent data available
Challenges
- -Negative cash flow at typical financing (-$466/mo)
- -Negative leverage (cap rate 4.2% < mortgage rate 6.9%)
Economic Indicators
Who this market fits
- +All-cash buyers: removing debt service flips the cap rate to actual yield
- −You need positive cash flow on day one at typical leverage
- −You can't tolerate negative leverage (cap rate below mortgage rate today)
Compare to Nearby Counties
Section 8 in Wayne County: payment standards by ZIP, PHA waitlist status, and voucher counts are on VoucherMatch, the same HUD dataset with the tenant demand side attached.
The Bottom Line
Wayne County in Ohio scores 67/100, ranking #208 of 1,000 US counties (top 27%). At 20% down and current rates, a median-priced rental loses about $466/month; the 6.43% gross rent-to-price ratio doesn't survive debt service. The thesis here is appreciation, value-add, house hacking, or all-cash.