Lawrence County

Lawrence County sits at a gross rent-to-price ratio of 6.9%, which is respectable but not exceptional for a Pennsylvania market. The 4.48% cap rate tells you what that ratio actually translates to once you account for operating costs: you're in appreciation-leaning territory, not a cash machine. The model underwrite at 20% down, a 6.85% rate, and a $164,572 purchase price produces a monthly mortgage of $863 against a median rent of $946. After $331 in estimated expenses, you're looking at negative $248 per month cash flow and a cash-on-cash return of -7.86%. That number gets better as rates fall or rents rise, but at today's financing costs, Lawrence is not a market you buy for immediate cash flow. It is, however, priced affordably, scoring 95 out of 100 on affordability and posting 4.17% year-over-year price appreciation, which lands it solidly on the appreciation side of the spectrum. The overall score of 73 out of 100, good for the 89th national percentile and 10th in Pennsylvania out of 67 counties, reflects a market that is competitively positioned at a state level despite its cash-flow limitations.

The investor this market suits best is one who can tolerate a thin or negative monthly spread now in exchange for price appreciation upside in a sub-$165,000 median price market. A 4.17% annual appreciation rate on an asset purchased at that price point means nominal dollar gains stay modest, but the return on a $33,000 down payment compounds meaningfully if that trend holds. Value-add operators have a potential angle here too: at a $945 median rent, there is room to argue rents are below what a renovated unit in the right submarket could command, though the data does not specify rent distribution. A pure cash-flow buyer running standard leverage is better served elsewhere. The stability score of 50 is the lowest composite metric in the profile, which should temper any aggressive buy-and-hold thesis that depends on a predictable rent base.

The monthly tax and insurance figure deserves serious attention in the underwrite. Combined property tax and insurance run an estimated $243 per month, which is already baked into the $331 expense figure, but the tax component alone is the bigger story. Pennsylvania's state-average effective property tax rate is 1.54%, which the data flags as high. At that rate on a $164,572 asset, you're looking at roughly $2,534 in annual property taxes. That rate is a real underwriting consideration: it compresses net operating income enough to keep the cap rate at 4.48% even in a low-price market. One honest caveat the data includes is worth passing along: the 1.54% is a state-average estimate and actual county and township rates in Lawrence County may differ, so verify the local millage before closing. The insurance figure at 0.23% and $379 annually is low by national standards and provides a modest offset, but the tax line dominates.

Lawrence County's risk profile centers on a stability score of 50, which is the weakest signal in an otherwise competitive scorecard. The population of 85,907 is not large, and smaller markets with lower stability scores can see disproportionate rent movement when anchor employers or demographic patterns shift. No economic anchor data was provided, so it is not possible to assess employer concentration or job base resilience here. What the data does surface is that the county's affordability at a 95 score cuts both ways: low prices attract buyers who would otherwise be renters, which can gradually compress the renter pool in a small market over time. That is a demographic dynamic worth monitoring.

Against its neighbors, Lawrence holds up reasonably well on price and comparably on the overall composite. Beaver County is priced higher at $192,004 with a lower rent-to-price ratio of 6.67% and a nearly identical overall score of 72, making Lawrence the cleaner entry on pure affordability. Blair County at $166,151 and a 7.22% rent-to-price ratio actually edges Lawrence on the rent yield metric and scores 74 overall, making it a credible alternative for an investor who wants slightly better cash-flow positioning at a similar price point. Northumberland County at $158,522 and a 7.31% rent-to-price ratio scores 75 overall and offers both a lower entry price and a better gross yield than Lawrence. Philadelphia County is in a different category entirely, with a $228,589 median price and a 8.94% rent-to-price ratio, but the capital requirements and market dynamics are not comparable to a western Pennsylvania rural market. The case for choosing Lawrence over its neighbors comes down to the appreciation score of 84, the highest-conviction number in the dataset. If that 4.17% annual price trend reflects real demand rather than noise in a thin market, Lawrence offers an appreciation profile that Beaver, Blair, and Northumberland do not clearly match, at a price point that keeps equity-at-risk manageable.