Anderson County

Anderson County checks in at a 4.04% cap rate against a $313,013 median home price and $1,621 monthly rent, producing a gross rent-to-price ratio of 0.62% per month (6.22% annualized). That places it squarely on the appreciation side of the cash-flow/appreciation spectrum. The model underwrite at 6.85% interest, 20% down, produces a monthly mortgage of $1,641 against $1,621 in rent, so before expenses the deal is already underwater. Add $567 in estimated monthly expenses and the levered cash flow lands at negative $587 per month, a cash-on-cash return of -9.78%. None of that is unusual for a market scoring 80 on appreciation and only 62 on cash flow, but investors need to be clear-eyed: at current rates and prices, Anderson does not pencil as a cash-flow play unless you are buying meaningfully below median, bringing a larger down payment, or accessing below-market debt. The 2.97% year-over-year home price growth is real but not dramatic, consistent with a market that is appreciating steadily rather than spiking.

The buyer this county suits is an appreciation-oriented investor who can absorb negative carry for several years in exchange for price appreciation and equity build, or a value-add operator who can acquire distressed assets at a sufficient discount to the $313,013 median to manufacture a margin. An affordability index of 63 suggests the market is not cheap by Tennessee standards, but it is not prohibitively expensive either, which typically supports continued owner-occupant and renter demand without the demand destruction you see when affordability scores drop below 40. A pure cash-flow buyer who needs a positive return from day one should look elsewhere in this data set. The stability score of 50 is the number that deserves attention: it signals that the county's rent and price trends are less predictable than a deep, diversified market, which raises the risk profile for the appreciation bet you are implicitly making by buying here.

Tennessee has no state income tax, which is a structural tailwind for attracting employers and in-migrants, and Anderson County's position adjacent to Oak Ridge, the federally anchored research and national security complex, provides a demand base that most comparably sized counties lack. Federal laboratory employment tends to be recession-resistant, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory is among the largest employers in the region. That employment base supports consistent renter demand from contract workers, researchers, and support staff who prefer to rent rather than buy, and it partially explains why the market scores as high as it does on appreciation: scarcity of housing around an anchor institution creates durable upward pressure on prices over time.

On carry costs, the combined monthly tax and insurance figure runs $279, with property taxes estimated at $2,222 annually (an effective rate of 0.71%) and insurance at $1,127 annually. The tax rate carries a normal flag, meaning it is neither a tailwind nor a headwind relative to state norms, but bear in mind this is a state-average effective rate from Tax Foundation 2024 data and actual Anderson County or township-level rates may differ. At 0.71% the tax burden is moderate and not the primary underwriting risk here; the interest rate environment is doing far more damage to cash-on-cash returns than the property tax line. That said, $279 per month in tax and insurance is already embedded in the $567 expense estimate, so the full levered picture above reflects it.

The principal risk in Anderson is concentration. A market of 77,337 people with meaningful economic exposure to a single federal complex is only as stable as federal budget cycles and program continuity. If Oak Ridge National Laboratory funding were curtailed or a major program relocated, the ripple effect on local employment and rental demand would be material. The stability score of 50 likely reflects that concentration alongside the county's relatively small population base, which means individual large employers or departures move the needle more than they would in a metro market.

Against its neighbors, Anderson's overall score of 64 outpaces Greene County (62), Shelby County (61), Carroll County (63), while trailing Rhea County and Lincoln County (both 68). The comparison that matters most for a cash-flow-oriented investor is against Greene County: Greene's rent-to-price ratio of 0.653% per month is higher than Anderson's 0.622%, and its median home price is $72,000 lower at $240,638, which means the math on levered returns is meaningfully better in Greene even though the overall score is slightly lower. Shelby County (Memphis) shows the highest rent-to-price ratio in this peer group at 0.758% monthly, and at a $215,746 median it offers the strongest raw cash-flow profile of any county in this comparison set. An investor should choose Anderson over its neighbors specifically when the Oak Ridge employment anchor is the strategic thesis, when an appreciation hold of seven or more years is the plan, or when a value-add acquisition below $260,000 can close the gap between rent and carrying cost. If the goal is current income, Shelby or Greene are better starting points.