Maury County

Maury County sits at a 3.2% cap rate on a $400,294 median home price with $1,645 in median monthly rent, placing it firmly on the appreciation side of the spectrum. The gross rent-to-price ratio of 4.93% is thin, and the investment model confirms what that number implies: at 6.85% financing with 20% down, you're looking at a $2,098 monthly mortgage, $576 in estimated expenses, and a cash flow of negative $1,030 per month. Cash-on-cash return comes out to -13.42%. These are not rounding-error losses, they are structural, and they reflect the disconnect between where prices have run (up 1.07% year-over-year to just over $400K) and where rents have followed. The affordability index of 44 out of 100 tells the same story from the demand side: residents are stretched, which historically caps how aggressively rents can be pushed without increasing vacancy risk.

This market suits one buyer type: someone underwriting for appreciation and willing to carry negative cash flow as the cost of entry. The 61 appreciation score, the highest sub-score in this profile, is the thesis here. A cash-flow buyer has no business at these numbers. Even a value-add operator faces a hard ceiling because the problem isn't distressed stock or below-market rents, it's the ratio of purchase prices to what the local renter base can absorb. An appreciation buyer needs to believe that Maury County's growth trajectory justifies carrying roughly $12,360 in annual negative cash flow per door until either rents normalize upward or a disposition event captures the equity. That is a high-conviction bet, and it requires a buyer with reserves and patience to hold through rate or market cycles.

The $357 monthly combined tax and insurance figure, built from Tennessee's 0.71% effective property tax rate and a 0.36% insurance rate, is not a major underwriting hazard on its own, but it is a real line item. The state-average effective tax rate of 0.71% is flagged here as "normal," which is accurate relative to national comparisons, and Tennessee's lack of a state income tax is a known offset. Still, actual county and township rates in Maury can differ from the state average, so verify the specific parcel rate before finalizing your underwrite. The $2,842 in annual property tax and $1,441 in annual insurance are embedded in the expense figures above, and they are not the primary driver of the negative cash flow story, the mortgage cost at 6.85% is.

Against its neighbors, Maury is not the obvious choice for any investor buying on today's numbers. Robertson County offers a rent-to-price ratio of 5.53%, the highest in this peer group, at a median price of $366,187, which is $34,000 cheaper than Maury while producing $1,688 in median rent, nearly identical to Maury's figure. That combination produces materially better starting yields. Montgomery County, at $318,518 median and a 5.22% rent-to-price ratio, offers the most accessible entry point in the group and the least capital at risk per door. Hamilton County prices in at $347,463 with a 5.18% ratio, also meaningfully better than Maury on cash-flow math. Rutherford County, often compared to Maury given their proximity to the Nashville corridor, is slightly pricier at $412,432 but holds a marginally better ratio at 4.96%. Sumner County is the only neighbor that underperforms Maury on yield, at 4.61% on a $436,405 median. The national ranking, 600th out of 1,000 counties, places Maury at the 23rd percentile overall and 62nd out of 95 Tennessee counties, which confirms it is not a top-tier market by composite score.

The case for choosing Maury over a neighbor comes down to one question: do you have a specific conviction about Maury's continued population and price growth that you do not have for Robertson or Montgomery? If the answer is yes and you can name the driver, buying here at a loss-to-carry is a defensible strategy. If the answer is that you are comparing yield sheets, Robertson County wins the cash-flow argument and Montgomery County wins the affordability argument, both by numbers that are not close enough to rationalize the Maury premium on yield grounds alone.